CHENNAI: The Regional Meteorological Centre (RMC) has forecast rainfall across Tamil Nadu and Puducherry until October 17. The rain is expected to hit Chennai and its surrounding districts on Sunday night and intensify on Tuesday and Wednesday.
The centre has also warned of heavy to very heavy rainfall or extremely heavy rainfall in these districts, and issued an orange alert for October 15 and 16. Extremely heavy rainfall is predicted in isolated areas of Chennai, Tiruvallur, Kancheepuram, and Chengalpattu on Wednesday.
Seven places in the state received very heavy rainfall and 21 received heavy rainfall in the 24 hours ending Sunday morning. Madurai recorded 16cm rainfall, the highest, while Tirubhuvanam in Sivanganga got 14cm.
On Sunday evening, RMC Chennai additional director general of meteorology S Balachandran said that two weather systems in Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal are expected to bring rainfall to Tamil Nadu and Puducherry.
There is a well-marked low pressure over the east-central and adjoining west-central Arabian Sea, and a cyclonic circulation over the southeast Bay of Bengal. Due to the interaction of both weather activities, the rainfall can be high, he said.
‘Risk of Chennai flooding minimal’
The upper air circulation will intensify into a low pressure which will move towards west-northwest direction and move in the direction of north Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and adjoining south Andhra Pradesh coasts in the next two days, said S Balachandran, additional director general of meteorology at RMC Chennai.
On October 14, heavy to very heavy rain is expected in isolated places over Villupuram, Cuddalore, Ariyalur, Perambalur, Mayiladuthurai, Thanjavur, Tiruvarur, Pudukkottai, and Nagapattinam districts, and Puducherry and Karaikal, with heavy rain also likely in Chennai, Tiruvallur, Kancheepuram, Ranipet, Chengalpattu, Tiruvannamalai, Kallakurichi, Tiruchy, Sivagangai, and Ramanathapuram.
On October 15, heavy to very heavy rain is forecast in isolated places in Chennai, Tiruvallur, Kancheepuram, Ranipet, Chengalpattu, Tiruvannamalai, Kallakurichi, Cuddalore, and Puducherry, with heavy rain expected in Vellore, Tirupattur, Krishnagiri, Dharmapuri, Salem, Erode, Ariyalur, Perambalur, Thanjavur, Tiruvarur, Nagapattinam, Mayiladuthurai, and Karaikal.
On October 16, heavy to very heavy rain is expected in Ranipet, Tiruvannamalai, Villupuram, and Puducherry, and heavy rain is forecast in Vellore, Tirupattur, Krishnagiri, Dharmapuri, Salem, Kallakurichi, and Cuddalore.
From October 1 to 13, Tamil Nadu and Puducherry have received 95.3 mm, which is 66% higher than the usual rainfall of 57.4 mm. In the 24 hours ending Sunday morning, Sivakasi in Virudhunagar, Thallakulam and Periyapatti in Madurai, Rameswaram in Ramanathapuram, and Vettikadu in Thanjavur received 12 cm rainfall each. Balachandran added that the conditions are favourable for the complete withdrawal of southeast monsoon from Indiac in the next two days and northeast monsoon rainfall activity is likely to commence on October 15-16.
Independent weather blogger K Srikanth has forecast very heavy rain in Chennai and surrounding districts on both October 15 and 16. “While it’s difficult to estimate the quantum of the rainfall, it is expected to last for 36-48 hours, with intervals in between. Most of the rain will likely occur from late evening to early morning,” he said. But, he said the risk of flooding is minimal. “Unlike rain caused by Cyclone Michaung, which came at the fag end of northeast monsoon, this is only the beginning of the northeast monsoon season, so there’s no need to panic,” he added.