CHENNAI: Northern Tamil Nadu, which spans from capital Chennai through the Vanniyar heartland to mineral-rich hills and ends in Kallakurichi and Cuddalore, is the state’s largest political cluster with 78 seats across 11 districts. The region is largely perceived as a DMK stronghold, but it had offered surprise wins for other parties too.
In 2021, the DMK-led Secular Progressive Alliance (SPA) swept the region, winning 64 of 78 seats. The victory was largely attributed to the anti-incumbency wave against 10 years of AIADMK rule, consolidation of minority votes and the groundswell of support for VCK among Dalits.
Five years on, from caste arithmetic to alliance chemistry, a lot has changed. The entry of Vijay’s TVK and father-son split in the PMK, and the renewed efforts of the AIADMK to rebuild its base have all played a role in this poll.
Although PMK led by Anbumani Ramadoss contested as part of the NDA led by AIADMK, the splinter group led by his father S Ramadoss, who has aligned with VK Sasikala’s AIPMMK, may have a sobering effect on the victory prospects of the AIADMK alliance. With senior Ramadoss fielding his own candidates, Vanniyar votes has seen a four-way split: Anbumani-PMK, Ramadoss-PMK, young Vanniyars’ votes for TVK, and pockets of support for DMK. Of the 18 seats that PMK is contesting as part of the AIADMK-led alliance, 11 are from the northern region.
Another consequential new variable in northern TN is TVK. Like the two Dravidian majors, Vijay too was wooing the region ever since the launch of his party. In fact, even before his first political conference, Vijay visited the hooch tragedy victims in Kallakurichi and his first conference was in Vikravandi, where he announced his party’s ideologues and declared his political enemy as DMK and ideological foe as BJP.
In Chennai, after the DMK, TVK may have done well for itself, pushing AIADMK to third place in many constituencies. Pre-poll surveys suggest TVK could pull anywhere between 20% and 25% of votes statewide, but seat conversion remains a different game, since a minimum of 35% votes may be needed to win a seat in a three-corner fight. Vijay’s contest in Perambur has made the constituency among the most-watched seats in northern TN. Irrespective of the outcome, the vote-share that DMK held in Chennai for a long time is said to be disturbed after Vijay’s arrival.
The net effect in the north, analysts say, is that TVK’s presence fractures the anti-DMK vote and also cuts into the DMK’s youth, minority and women vote-share.
The DMK, which went into this election from a position of strength in the north, may also be facing other headwinds. Renominating old guard like Duraimurugan in Katpadi and changing the candidates at the last minute without explanation could erode its support in several pockets.
The party’s five years have been defined by welfare delivery is said to be resonating among the voters. However, anti-incumbency might be visible in a lot of seats. While voters in Chennai complain of garbage, blocked drains and traffic issues, people in Tiruvallur and Ranipet want enough job opportunities in their region.
The minority-heavy pockets of Vellore, Ambur, and Vaniyambadi remain crucial to the DMK alliance. Five years ago, the CAA-NRC agitation had consolidated Muslim voters against the NDA. However, that sentiment has slowly weakened now and the vote share is likely to be split in these pockets by Vijay’s TVK.
The AIADMK’s reunion with BJP has once again given the DMK a clean contrast to draw. Stalin’s campaign leaned heavily on federalism, state autonomy, and the delimitation controversy, fitting into his narrative of Delhi vs TN, apart from the party’s manifesto promising Rs 8,000 coupon for women and increasing Kalaignar Magalir Urimai Thogai scheme aid. Whether that pitch was strong enough to pull voters is one of the key questions that May 4 will answer.