MADURAI/TIRUNELVELI: In 2021, DMK’s juggernaut ran all over the south. Out of the 58 Assembly seats in the 10 southern districts from Madurai to Kanniyakumari, DMK won 40 seats, up from 26 in the previous poll. Whereas the AIADMK ended up with 18, down from its 32-seat winning streak in 2016.
Though multiple factors were behind the change in AIADMK’s fortunes, the prime reason was the splitting of the Mukkulathor community votes, especially by the AMMK led by TTV Dhinakaran. In a bid to prevent a similar scenario from unfolding this time, the AIADMK-BJP accommodated him in the alliance.
Meanwhile, late CM J Jayalalithaa’s close aide, VK Sasikala, who was with the AIADMK for at least 30 years, has launched a new party and joined hands with PMK founder S Ramadoss and other small parties to “ensure” AIADMK’s defeat. The alliance may not aim to win seats but wants to split AIADMK votes. Though she may not be able to create a considerable impact like Dhinakaran, her party’s role could be vital in a few constituencies in deciding the winner.
Dhinakaran, who played a spoilsport for the AIADMK in southern districts, this time claimed that he joined hands with NDA just to dethrone the DMK from power, and is contesting four seats in the region. Their community, which was considered one of the strong supporters of AIADMK under Jayalalithaa in the southern belt, had felt sidelined due to the “importance” given to another community (the Gounders, represented by then CM and present AIADMK chief EPS).
Besides, another Mukkulathor leader, former CM O Panneerselvam, has switched to the DMK this time. However, other leaders such as RB Udhayakumar and Sellur K Raju claim that the party still has the community’s vote in its favour.
While the impact of these factors on the parties’ winning chances is yet to be seen, TVK has played a spoilsport for all three rivals — DMK alliance, AIADMK alliance, and NTK. Vijay, an X-factor, seems to have the support of not only women and youth but also the minorities. Whether he will emerge as the next MGR of TN will be known in a few days.
Apart from Vijay, there are a few more actors in the fray — Seeman in Karaikudi, Sundar C in Madurai Central and Karunas in Sivaganga. Late Vijayakanth’s son Vijaya Prabakaran (DMDK) is also contesting in Virudhunagar.
This time, the DMDK, led by Premalatha Vijayakanth, and SDPI’s Nellai Mubarak, who were with the AIADMK alliance in the LS polls, are with DMK. With Muslim parties mostly sticking with DMK, the ruling party hopes to retain victory. However, the internal fight within Congress remains a concern in the alliance.
Meanwhile, the deep south districts, like Tirunelveli, have witnessed many caste atrocities. The anger against the ruling DMK for ‘not acting’ sufficiently to prevent the crimes was evident on the ground. Whether these will impact the results remains to be seen.