CHENNAI: Tamil Nadu is likely to witness a normal northeast monsoon as El Nino is likely to not have an impact, IMD director general of meteorology M Mohapatra said at the Northeast Monsoon Seasonal Outlook Forum 2026 held at the National Institute of Ocean Technology (NIOT) on Thursday. The monsoon is likely to set in around October 15-21, he said.
The monsoon is likely to be normal over south peninsular India between October and December, though rainfall is expected to vary significantly across the region, according to the seasonal outlook released at the forum. Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema, Kerala and south interior Karnataka are expected to receive normal rainfall during the season.
Entire south TN and parts of northern Tamil Nadu are likely to receive normal to above-normal rainfall in October, while several other areas may receive below-normal rainfall.
Mohapatra said there is no clear relationship between
El Nino and the northeast monsoon in the last 20 years, pointing out that Tamil Nadu had received good rainfall during some El Nino years. The El Nino effect is expected to decline after December, he said. He also said IMD’s forecast error had reduced from 7.5% in 2021 to 2.2%.
The El Nino effect is expected to decline after December, said IMD director general of meteorology M Mohapatra
