HYDERABAD: There may finally be relief in sight for parched regions of Telangana, as weather forecasts indicate a possible recovery in monsoon rains starting July 17. After a disappointing start to the season marked by long dry spells and a statewide rainfall deficit of 23%, meteorologists say the second half of July could bring much-needed showers with some districts likely to receive up to 100 mm of rainfall.
Hyderabad has borne the brunt of the deficit, recording a staggering 51% shortfall — the highest in the state. Districts such as Medchal-Malkajgiri, Sangareddy, and Mahbubnagar have also seen alarmingly low rainfall, well below seasonal averages.
According to IMD experts, the rainfall deficit was triggered by a combination of meteorological anomalies. The early onset of monsoon in late May disrupted the buildup of pre-monsoon summer heat, which typically helps form low-pressure systems that draw in rains. “Temperatures in May stayed around 38–39°C instead of the usual 41–42°C, weakening the monsoon pull over Telangana,” Anjal Prakash, researcher and academic on water and climate change at Indian School of Business, Hyderabad, told TNIE.
Adding to the woes, major monsoon systems that formed in June and early July drifted north, favouring states like Madhya Pradesh and northern Maharashtra, while Telangana remained under a prolonged “break-monsoon” phase.
Rainfall during this period was scattered and inconsistent, offering only temporary respite without replenishing groundwater or reservoirs. “Rainfall activity is expected to improve after July 17. If July’s second half and August perform well, Telangana could recover to around -5% or even reach normal levels,” weather blogger T Balaji told TNIE.
While the current deficit can still be viewed as normal monsoon variability, experts caution that recurring shortfalls may indicate larger climatic shifts. “Changes in sea surface temperatures, atmospheric moisture, and jet stream patterns are all influencing monsoon dynamics,” Prakash noted. Global warming, he added, may be intensifying the frequency and duration of dry spells, particularly in interior regions like Telangana.
Districts such as Nizamabad, Warangal and Medak have also experienced significant rainfall shortages, heightening vulnerability to drought-like conditions. With soil moisture depleting rapidly, the shortfall is likely to disrupt Kharif sowing, especially for water-intensive crops like paddy and cotton.
“The delayed and uneven rains are expected to affect crop yield and harvest timelines, potentially impacting farmer incomes and food security in the coming months. Although some sowing has been delayed to align with anticipated rain spells, continued rainfall over the next 4–6 weeks will be critical to salvaging the season,” Prakash added.
“If the upcoming rains deliver as forecast, Telangana can claw back much of the lost ground,” said Prakash.