HYDERABAD: The Agriculture department’s contingency plan for the 2026 kharif season, released on Thursday, forecasts below-normal rainfall during the remaining southwest monsoon due to the prevailing El Nino conditions and advises farmers to shift from water-intensive crops, particularly paddy, to short-duration and drought-tolerant varieties. It warns that low reservoir storage could severely limit irrigation releases unless substantial inflows are received during the rest of the monsoon.
The Contingency Plan for Kharif-2026 says both the Godavari and Krishna basins are likely to receive below-normal rainfall during the remaining monsoon season. As a result, inflows into reservoirs, tanks and other water bodies are expected to remain below normal.
Although Telangana is expected to receive normal to slightly below-normal rainfall overall, the plan says considerable spatial variation is likely, with below-normal rainfall forecast in parts of the northern and southern Telangana zones.
According to the plan, rainfall during July is expected to remain around 25% below normal. August is likely to receive comparatively better rainfall than the other months, but is still expected to record a deficit of 10–15%. The rainfall deficit is projected to widen to around 42% in September and about 55% in October.
The plan says reservoirs in the Godavari basin currently have only 27.69 tmcft of utilisable storage, while projects in the Krishna basin have 14.81 tmcft. At the current storage levels, the available live storage is largely sufficient only for drinking water requirements, leaving little scope for irrigation releases unless substantial inflows are received during the remaining monsoon period.
‘Use water judiciously’
The contingency plan also projects a decline in groundwater levels. The state average groundwater level stood at 9.46 metres below ground level (mbgl) in June 2026. Based on rainfall received up to July 14 and assuming an overall rainfall deficit of 30%, the average groundwater level is projected to decline to 10.35 mbgl in July and 11.01 mbgl in August.
Of Telangana’s 33 districts, 20 recorded average groundwater levels in the range of 5-10 mbgl, while the remaining 13 districts recorded levels between 10 and 15 mbgl.
Compared with May 2026, the average groundwater level is projected to decline by 1.09 metres in July and 1.74 metres in August.
To mitigate the impact of El Nino and the anticipated rainfall deficit, the department has recommended shifting from high water-consuming crops, particularly paddy, to less water-intensive crops, promoting short-duration and drought-tolerant crop varieties, expanding drip and sprinkler irrigation, harvesting rainwater through recharge pits and farm ponds, regulating groundwater extraction, adopting conjunctive use of surface and groundwater, and conducting village-level farmer awareness campaigns.