HYDERABAD: Hyderabad’s weather may be heading towards a future of sharper contrasts. Residents who have grown used to blistering summers and sudden monsoon downpours could soon find both becoming more intense.
By 2030, the city could face nearly twice as many heatwave days and more frequent episodes of heavy rainfall, according to a new study that warns of a future marked by weather extremes across India.
The report, “Weathering the Storm: Managing Monsoons in a Warmer Climate”, prepared by Environmental Systems Research Institute (ESRI) India and IPE Global, projects that climate change will increase the intensity of extreme rainfall events across the country by 43% over the next five years. The result, researchers say, will be a hotter and wetter India, where cities must contend with rising temperatures and increasingly unpredictable monsoons.
Hyderabad figures prominently among the urban centres identified as vulnerable to these shifts. Along with Mumbai, Chennai, Delhi, Surat, Thane, Patna and Bhubaneswar, the city is expected to witness a two-fold increase in heatwave days by the end of the decade.
Scientists caution that the consequences extend beyond rising temperatures. Longer periods of extreme heat are often followed by intense bursts of rainfall, creating a cycle of weather extremes capable of overwhelming urban infrastructure, disrupting daily life and increasing the risk of flooding.
For Hyderabad, a city that has repeatedly witnessed roads turning into streams after heavy rain, the prospect of stronger downpours presents a fresh challenge. The study suggests that as temperatures climb, prolonged and irregular rainfall events are also likely to become more common.
The findings point to a broader transformation underway across the country. By 2030, nearly eight out of 10 districts in India are expected to experience multiple episodes of prolonged and irregular rainfall.
Such events are typically characterised by large volumes of rain falling within short periods, often triggering flooding and disruption.
Researchers note that October and November have traditionally been the months most associated with persistent rainfall. However, those months have become noticeably wetter in recent decades, reinforcing evidence that India’s monsoon patterns are changing.
The monsoon itself, the report says, is becoming increasingly unpredictable. Onsets are now more frequently described as delayed, abrupt, irregular and intense compared with historical patterns, reflecting the growing influence of a warming climate.
Another factor adding to the uncertainty is El Nino. Researchers warn that stronger El Nino conditions could further raise the likelihood of prolonged and irregular rainfall episodes across India in the coming years.
Perhaps the most striking finding is the overlap between regions battling extreme heat and those experiencing intense rainfall. More than 84% of India’s districts have been classified as heatwave hotspots. Among them, nearly 70% have also recorded repeated instances of prolonged and irregular rainfall during the southwest monsoon season between June and September over the last three decades. For Hyderabad, that convergence could define the city’s climate future.
