HYDERABAD: Telangana is likely to experience warmer-than-usual days and below-normal rainfall in November, with very strong El Nino conditions expected to persist through the month and December. However, several districts are likely to receive rain, thunderstorms and isolated heavy showers during the first week of November, according to IMD.
The IMD’s November outlook forecasts above-normal maximum temperatures across most parts of the State. Daytime temperatures are expected to remain higher than the usual November average, IMD scientist GNRS Srinivas Rao told TNIE.
Rainfall, meanwhile, is likely to remain below normal across much of Telangana. The IMD has projected precipitation below 77% of the long-period average across five south peninsular meteorological subdivisions.
The forecast comes amid a significant seasonal rainfall deficit. Telangana received 628.2 mm of rainfall between June 1 and October 31, against the normal 830.7 mm, leaving a shortfall of 202.5 mm, or 24%, according to TGDPS data.
October was particularly dry, with the State receiving approximately 12.7 mm of rain against an estimated normal of 90.1 mm, a deficit of nearly 86%, based on cumulative rainfall figures at the end of September and October.
The shortfall has been particularly severe in southern districts. Jogulamba Gadwal recorded a 50% deficit, followed by Narayanpet at 44%. Nalgonda and Nagarkurnool were each 42% deficient, while Hanumakonda recorded a 41% shortfall. Hyderabad and Medchal-Malkajgiri reported deficits of 34% and 39%, respectively.
The showers forecast for early November could offer some relief to deficit-hit districts, but are unlikely to make up for the accumulated seasonal shortfall.
Light to moderate rain or thundershowers are expected at isolated places until November 3. An isolated heavy rainfall warning has been issued for Adilabad, Komaram Bheem Asifabad, Mancherial, Jagtial, Mahbubnagar, Nagarkurnool, Wanaparthy, Narayanpet and Jogulamba Gadwal on November 2. On November 3, the warning will cover Mahbubnagar, Nagarkurnool, Wanaparthy, Narayanpet and Jogulamba Gadwal.
In Hyderabad, partly cloudy skies, light rain or drizzle and gusty winds of 30-40 kmph are forecast until November 4. However, the likely impact of these conditions has been classified as very low across all 12 city zones.
The IMD expects neutral Indian Ocean Dipole conditions to continue until December, while very strong El Nino conditions are likely to persist through November and December.
Rain deficit puts Jagtial farmers on alert
With El Nino raising the prospect of water scarcity in the coming Yasangi season, farmers in Jagtial are being urged to rethink their crop choices. The Agriculture Department is pushing for less water-intensive crops as three mandals in the district face moderate drought conditions.
District Collector B Satya Prasad said officials were monitoring rainfall, crop conditions and groundwater levels to prepare for possible water scarcity. Farmers are being advised to opt for crops requiring less water. Jagtial has received 815.1 mm of rainfall against the normal 896.7 mm, a deficit of 9%. Bheemaram, Gollapalli and Ibrahimpatnam have recorded rainfall shortfalls.
Jagtial Rural, Jagtial and Kodimial have been identified as moderately drought-affected, with estimated crop yield declines of 37%, 34% and 41%, respectively. Of the district’s 920 tanks, 572 (63%) have reached at least 75% of their storage capacity, while six are overflowing. However, 148 tanks have less than 50% storage
