HYDERABAD: Telangana is unlikely to receive significant rainfall during the Northeast monsoon unless favourable weather systems develop, say meteorologists.
With the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remaining neutral, the chances of widespread rain remain low. The state has recorded a 23% rainfall deficit since June, which could widen to 30% if substantial rainfall does not occur over the next month.
The Southwest monsoon withdrew from the country on October 15, marking the end of the main rainy season. However, the onset of the Northeast monsoon over parts of southern India, including coastal Andhra Pradesh and Rayalaseema, has raised hopes of some rainfall in Telangana over the coming weeks.
For a state that has received below-normal rainfall since June, the key question is whether the Northeast monsoon can provide some relief before the year ends.
According to the Telangana State Development Planning Society (TSDPS), the state received 615.8 mm of rainfall between June 1 and October 15, against the normal 795.7 mm, resulting in a 23% deficit.
35% rainfall deficit in Hyderabad
Hyderabad recorded 458.5 mm against its normal of 700.2 mm, leaving the district with a 35% deficit. Across the Greater Hyderabad Municipal Corporation, Cyberabad Municipal Corporation and Malkajgir Municipal Corporation (MMC) areas, cumulative rainfall stood at 457.6 mm against the normal 687.6 mm, a shortfall of 33%.
The Northeast monsoon, which extends from October to December, becomes an important source of rainfall for southeastern India after the Southwest monsoon withdraws. During this period, easterly and northeasterly winds carry moisture from the Bay of Bengal towards southern peninsular India.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) declared the onset of the Northeast monsoon over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal, coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema, south interior Karnataka, Kerala and Mahe on October 15. An upper-air cyclonic circulation over south coastal Tamil Nadu and adjoining areas, along with the establishment of easterly and northeasterly winds, supported the onset.
However, the Northeast monsoon is less significant for Telangana than for Tamil Nadu. According to TSDPS rainfall climatology, the state receives around 110.2 mm during October-December, accounting for about 12% of its normal annual rainfall of 923.8 mm.
October’s normal rainfall for Telangana is 90.1 mm. By October 15, the state received 59.1 mm against the normal 55.1 mm for the period, according to the TSDPS data.
On October 15, however, the state recorded no rainfall against the normal daily average of 2.4 mm. Aswaraopeta in Bhadradri Kothagudem district was the only location to record rainfall, at 0.4 mm. No rainfall was recorded across the GHMC, CMC and MMC areas.
The onset of the Northeast monsoon in neighbouring regions does not automatically translate into widespread rainfall in Telangana. The state’s prospects will depend on the movement of weather systems, moisture availability and the development of cyclonic circulations or depressions over the Bay of Bengal.
While favourable systems could bring spells of rain to parts of Telangana, meteorologists say it would be premature to expect the Northeast monsoon to compensate for the entire seasonal shortfall.
The rainfall deficit is already pronounced in several districts. Jogulamba Gadwal recorded a 49% deficit, followed by Narayanpet at 42%, Nalgonda at 41% and Nagarkurnool at 40%, according to TSDPS. In contrast, 12 districts remained within the normal rainfall range.
