HYDERABAD: Telangana is heading into a difficult September, with the monsoon deficit expected to widen to 30-40% during the month. The state is already 23% short of its normal cumulative rainfall, with most central and southern districts continuing to record below-normal rain.
Meteorological experts noted that a spell of heavy rain in the last week of July helped limit the rainfall deficit, which could otherwise have risen further.
“Had Telangana not received the heavy rainfall spell during the last week of July, deficiency levels would have approached 40%, and almost every district would have fallen into the deficient category,” IMD meteorologist GNRS Srinivas Rao told TNIE.
“That one week of rainfall was the only period that resembled a normal monsoon this year. The rest of the season has largely been characterised by scattered and isolated showers.”
Sept may deepen the deficit
The IMD’s monthly outlook indicates that September could end with a 30-40% rainfall deficit. “A few rainy days can improve the statistics, but the overall September rainfall is still expected to remain deficient by around 30%,” the expert added.
However, there may be some relief, with models indicating a low-pressure area could form over the southwest Bay of Bengal around September 11-12. Unlike earlier systems over the northwest Bay, it could bring more widespread rain to Telangana.
“If the system forms and tracks favourably, Telangana could receive four to five days of good rainfall. In that case, the overall deficiency may remain closer to 20% instead of increasing sharply. But if the system fails to develop, the deficit could rise beyond current projections,” Srinivas Rao explained.
El Nino adds to the pressure
Meteorologists attribute much of the rainfall shortfall to strengthening El Nino conditions over the Pacific Ocean. According to global weather agencies, El Nino has intensified and is approaching the threshold of a severe event.
Sea surface temperature anomalies have crossed 1.5 degrees Celsius, placing the phenomenon in the severe category, experts said. Global forecasts indicate that the warming trend could continue for another three to four months, with its influence potentially extending into early 2027.
The prolonged El Nino is expected to suppress cloud formation, reduce thunderstorm activity and contribute to higher temperatures. Experts warned that Telangana could see a warmer winter, hotter summer and below-normal rainfall in the coming months.
The sharp deterioration in August erased much of the gains made earlier in the season, with June and July rainfall broadly comparable to 2025 and deficiencies in the single digits to low teens. However, August recorded a 42% deficit, compared with more than 15% excess rainfall in the same month last year, pushing the season back into deficiency.
Meteorologists have also noted preliminary signs of an early withdrawal of the southwest monsoon, which could further narrow the window for meaningful rainfall before the season ends.
With September likely to remain below normal and El Nino strengthening, Telangana faces a difficult monsoon finish, with the deficit likely to widen without sustained rain.
