KOLKATA: A new alliance marks a potential realignment in West Bengal’s Muslim vote bank ahead of the Assembly elections next month. Humayun Kabir, chief of the newly formed Aam Janata Unnayan Party (AJUP) and expelled Trinamool Congress MLA from the Bharatpur constituency, has announced an electoral tie-up with Asaduddin Owaisi’s AIMIM.
At a luxurious hotel in New Town on Wednesday, Kabir and Owaisi jointly addressed reporters to formally declare the partnership. Kabir said, “Mere bada bhai Asaduddin Owaisi aayehain. Our two parties will fight the elections together. We will soon announce a joint list of candidates.” Owaisi, standing alongside him, added, “Both parties will contest the assembly elections in West Bengal together.”
The alliance plans to nominate candidates for 190 of the 294 assembly seats. Both leaders are expected to launch their campaign from Murshidabad, a district with the state’s highest Muslim population—over 70%—beginning April 1.
Kabir, expelled from Trinamool after announcing plans to build a Babri Masjid-model mosque in Beldanga, Murshidabad, last December, formed AJUP following allegations of anti-party activities.
“Our main agenda in this election is about no development for minority Muslims in Bengal. Only 7% of 30% Muslims get government jobs in this state. A large number of Muslims could not even go to college. And Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee has been using the minorities only for votes, but they don’t get any benefits,” Owaisi alleged.
The announcement has drawn sharp criticism from the ruling Trinamool Congress. Veteran MP Saugata Roy called the alliance a “bad development” and suggested it could “isolate Muslim masses”. Hesaid, “Owaisi’s outfit is helping BJP, but it will not have any impact. They do not have strength and will not get votes.”
Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool has remained in power in West Bengal for 15 consecutive years since 2011, largely due to its consolidated Muslim vote share. This election, the party is again making a concerted effort to retain minority support. Around 90 assembly seats across Malda, North Dinajpur, Murshidabad, Nadia, North 24-Parganas, South 24-Parganas, and Howrah are considered critical, with minority votes often deciding outcomes.
For the first time in over a decade, multiple parties are vying for a share of the roughly 30 percent Muslim vote, particularly in minority-dominated constituencies. Analysts note that the emergence of new players, such as the Indian Secular Front (ISF) led by Nawsad Siddique and its ally, the CPI-M-led Left Front, AJUP aligning with AIMIM, and revived Congress activity in Murshidabad and Malda, has introduced a fresh layer of uncertainty into Bengal’s electoral landscape. The ISF, for instance, has targeted younger Muslim voters disillusioned with mainstream parties.
“Earlier, minority voters consolidated traditionally behind the Trinamool since the party came to power in Bengal, ending the Left regime of 34 years. But the emergence of new platforms and local grievances has created micro-level fissures that could hurt the ruling party in a tightly contested election,” political analyst Prof Biswanath Chakraborty said.
“The Kabir-Owaisi alliance might affect Trinamool in North Dinajpur, Malda, and Murshidabad, but it can hardly damage the party’s Muslim vote bank in most of the south Bengal districts,” he added.
Another factor influencing minority votes is the SIR exercise, which risks disenfranchising voters in the ‘under adjudication’ category. Mamata has expressed solidarity with affected voters, positioning herself against the Election Commission, a stance that may yield electoral dividends, particularly among Muslims.
Prof Abdul Matin of Jadavpur University agreed with Chakraborty’s on the new alliance’s impact, saying, “The alliance can cause hardly any damage to Trinamool because minority voters in Bengal are aware of the political credibility of Kabir and Owaisi. They may gain several seats in Malda and Murshidabad, but not in other parts of south Bengal.”
He said, “Owaisi was silent on the SIR since it began in November last year in Bengal.”
