The PMO’s peacenik policy on India’s belligerent neighbours threatens Congress election chances in 2014, worrying party strategists. This paralysis is seriously worrying the Congress, which faces elections in 2014, having sensed the popular mood against the government after Sarabjit’s killing and the Chinese incursion.
South Block sources say that the abject political failure owes a lot to Menon’s ‘ivory tower’ style. He was India’s foreign secretary during the controversial Sharm-el-Sheikh talks where India was humiliated by Pakistan. The dithering government, out of sync with the national outrage on China and Pakistan’s transgressions, and the political backlash they anticipate from voters and the Opposition, has not able to promptly cancel Khurshid’s proposed Beijing trip in face of the Chinese aggression.
PAKISTAN QUICKSAND: In certain quarters in Islamabad, the message has filtered through that New Delhi will not take any strong step, however big the provocation, as the talks—lavish lunches to Pakistan Minister—as per the US blueprint. The PMO directly handles Pakistan policy, thereby ensuring only pliant foreign ministers like SM Krishna handled India’s image abroad. Unlike Krishna, Khurshid, who had come in with high hopes of charting his course was forced to stay in the background.
“On Pakistan, Menon is on the same page as Manmohan Singh. They are both inclined to give a degree of leeway to Islamabad, despite its various transgressions, and at the cost of underestimating an enraged public opinion,’’ informs a foreign policy wonk.
In contrast, when Pranab Mukherjee was the foreign minister, the tone was anything but timorous. He had responded to 26/11 with well-calibrated verbal artillery, almost implying war without really intending to, and thus averted a domestic humiliation for the UPA.
THE DOVE IN SOUTH BLOCK: Sources say that Ranjan Mathai has been stifled by the PMO and the NSA. He has kept quiet on both Sarabjit and the Chinese incursions. Congress leaders feel that the buck stops with the prime minister and the foreign minister to take a firm stand in China, even if Menon is against playing the ‘coercion card’ with its intrusive neighbour, economically or militarily. Chinese imports amount to over 28.025 billion dollars and an economic embargo would surely have been leverage at the hands of the economist-turned prime minister to roll back the humiliation. “There’s been a total failure of our neighbourhood policy. From the smallest and weakest country, to the biggest and the most powerful country, everybody is taking India for a ride. That reflects the total failure of India’s foreign policy,” said former External Affairs Minister and senior BJP leader, Yashwant Sinha. Menon’s China Study Group, which spearheads Sino-Indian policy, based on inputs and multiple scenarios provided by not just the MEA but also by the Ministry of Defence, the Home Ministry and security agencies. He doesn’t necessarily heed their advice.
UPA GETS ACNE: The biggest victims of the Chinese incursion and the NSA’s conciliatory doctrine is the government’s public image, the Congress party’s prospects in a pre-election atmosphere and the prestige of India’s External Affairs Ministry headed by the urbane Khurshid in that order.
The increasing perception that India’s foreign policy graph has nosedived is not merely caused by the rebuffs from the usual suspects China and Pakistan—but also Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and Nepal. Even the tiny Maldives cocked a snook at ‘big brother’ India, taking an Islamist swerve off the course India was steering. South Block sources say that if Menon had his way, India would probably not have voted in favour of the resolution at the UNHRC that criticised Sri Lanka last month. election year.
The election bound Congress has much to fear: apart from the fallout of corruption, the backlash of its foreign policy muddles have further muddied the chances of repairing the government’s image—and therefore the ruling party’s. Its not just the epitaph of India’s prestige that is being written by the PMO and its South Block mandarins, but also the famous last words of Indian foreign policy: “Speak softly and Dot Even Carry a Small Stick.
