NEW DELHI: Nitish Kumar has won the battle for supremacy in JD(U) but may have lost the electoral war already.
Miles away from the poll heat of Delhi, he was elected the new member of the JD(U) in the Bihar Assembly on Saturday. Chief Minister Jitan Ram Manjhi was expelled from the party in a tussle that saw a bitter turn of events where the last-minute efforts of his patch-up with Kumar failed.
The CM forged ahead the dissolution of the Assembly. The proposal of dissolution of the Assembly was supported by seven ministers besides Manjhi, while a majority of pro-Nitish Kumar ministers opposed it.
Meanwhile, Manjhi could resign as the chief minister, making him a Dalit martyr in Bihar’s caste-infested politics. It could cost Nitish dearly. What started as an exercise of sycophancy and insecurity has also boomeranged into a credibility crisis for the JD(U) as Nitish desperately expects to return to power. The Manjhi episode showed how quickly loyalties can change since it was erstwhile ignored and sulking JD(U) leader Sharad Yadav whom Nitish chose to inform the governor Keshari Nath Tripathi, that he should ignore all of Manjhi’s instructions. In the shifting sands of Bihar’s caste-ridden politics with Lalu and the Congress using the JD(U) as their trump card for survival even leaders like Sharad Yadav are in the same boat. The ousting of Manjhi could have serious repercussions on Nitish’s electoral fortunes which are already under pressure as evident from his opportunistic alliance with former foe Lalu and taking the support of Congress to survive.
The BJP’s tactic of not jumping into the mess and supporting Manjhi will only bring out the contrast of its image as a party that is not desperate for power. But instead relies on Modi and the development agenda. Sushil Modi’s current visit to Delhi will further reshape the party’s plans to capture the power in the state.
Nitish, who is too eager to cling to power, turns out to be a bigger dictator than what he accuses Prime Minister Narendra Modi of being. He got elected as leader of JD(U) legislature party. Of 111 party MLAs, 97 attended the meeting. 20 ministers have quit.
BJP could be the gainer in the state, as Manjhi is most likely to depend on the saffron party. In a given situation when Manjhi played his triumph card by recommending dissolution of Assembly to retain power as care-taker government till election, the role of Governor would be crucial. Governor Keshri Nath Tripathy, a former senior BJP leader, would certainly be liberal to Manjhi.
The political instability would help BJP to a great extent in coming state assembly election as BJP scored well on the issue of stability in recent election especially in Jharkhand.
The current political equation forces Manjhi camp to seek a helping hand from the saffron party as the only option left to them. Nitish is all set to be elected as legislative party leader once again but it would be difficult to say whether he would once again get power in the state as the politics of the state has changed a lot in last eight months.
“The political assertion of Manjhi particularly by consolidating Dalits who constitute about 22 per cent votes in the state made Nitish Kumar a bit insecure who handpicked this Mahadalit leader who belonged to Mushhar community” said a senior JD (U) leader.
The process of consistent marginalization forced Nitish to go for “Operation Manjhi ouster”. Much to the surprise of Manjhi, often got praise from senior BJP leaders like Uma Bharti, CP Thakur, Nand Kishore Yadav and so on. Manjhi also praised Modi and his work on many occasions.
Nitish camp sees the cordial dialogue between Manjhi and saffron party leaders as a political game. Party spokesperson Ajay Alok sought the resignation of two senior ministers Narendra Singh and Nitish Mishra who were allegedly hobnobbing with BJP.
Initially, Nitish tried to send a message to Manjhi to keep within his limit through his state party president Basistha Naraya Singh. Singh cautioned the chief minister that he should take the initiative to bridge the increasing gap between him and his cabinet colleagues.
Moving ahead on his mission, Manjhi often said that he is playing a 20-Twenty cricket match and never cared for any likely eventuality.
Team Nitish finally embarked on action only after getting a green signal from Lalu Prasad who clarified that his party’s support is to JD(U) and not to any particular individual.
Now Manjhi has his dagger drawn at his predecessor Nitish Kumar and has planned his own course of politics. He has nothing to lose at the fag end of his political career. The Dalit chief minister with his Dalit engineering could be a powerful bet against Nitish who claimed to develop this section as his own social constituency.
It’s still very difficult for Manjhi to mobilize the support of more than three dozen MLAs, say observers, but he is capable enough to spoil the game of Nitish to comeback in power once again.
Manjhi recommendation of the dissolution of the state assembly before somebody else is elected in his place as party legislative leader was a masterstroke, according to a source close to Manjhi. In that case the governor may ask him to continue as care taker government as the Assembly election is hardly nine months away.
Another option is that he may go for floor testing where at least support of 31 MLAs are needed if BJP gives crucial support. Currently saffron party has 88 MLAs in 243 seat state assembly. But in the election year BJP may not go for any power sharing.
If nothing concrete happens, Manjhi may not be averse to early polls jeopardizing the whole move of Nitish to get power once again. Political sources believe that the CM has already carved out an understanding with the BJP, which lacks a powerful Dalit face. In this political turmoil Nitish would be at receiving end of all political eventuality as his party is moving ahead for split and this will suit both his new political friend Lalu as well as his political rival BJP. Divided JD(U) will give better bargain scope to Lalu ahead the assembly election and BJP may try to corner Dalit votes with the help of Manjhi as another Dalit leader Ram Vilas Paswan is already with them in NDA.