PATNA: Caste remains the key determinant in elections in Bihar, despite complex social realities, and 2015 promises to be no exception.
After invoking the ghost of Mandal Commission, more than a quarter century later, the key duo of Lalu Prasad and Nitish Kumar have signalled that caste polarisation can create wonders like in 1995 when Lalu’s party (Janata Dal then) alone won 167 seats––besides 26 by its allies the CPI and six by CPI(M)––in the House of 324 then.
This was the result, despite upper caste antipathy against him. But the moot question is: will they succeed in their efforts in 2015? In the last 25 years much change has taken place. The process of fusion and fissure is coexistent.
The backward castes constitute the largest chunk of voters and are now no more a homogenous category. Once ignored, Extremely Backward Castes are proving to be a game changer in Bihar politics. Backward castes constitute about 50 per cent of Bihar’s population. They are divided into OBC and EBC categories.
The BJP too has worked out caste calculations by putting some OBC leaders on the fore, such as Bihar party in-charge Bhupendra Yadav, Union Minister Ram Kripal Yadav and Leader of Opposition Nand Kishore Yadav. It has also flagged the backward caste origin of Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
BJP insiders say party strategists may go ahead and field a large number of Yadav candidates to counter Mandal politics. Nitish Kumar, who belongs to the Kurmi caste—a dominant backward caste—made a first dent into OBC votes by forming his own political party and similarly, Upendra Kushwaha—who was his former associate—floated his own Rashtriya Lok Samata Party that became a constituent of NDA. He belongs to the Koeri community, which largely supported Nitish in earlier polls. Numerically, Koeris come next to Yadavs among OBCs that fits well into the new social engineering of BJP. The combination of Kurmi and Koeri is also referred to as Luv-Kush, as they trace their origin from these mythological icons.
Nitish is allowing his coalition partner Lalu to whip up caste passions by demanding publication of caste census report.
“Their association was under political compulsion to counter the Modi wave in Bihar, and it’s still in a very fragile state,” said former Rajya Sabha MP Shivanand Tiwary.
“Lalu has reaped the crop of Mandal and ruled the state for 15 years. In the meantime, every political party has developed its own set of leadership from backward castes. So, now the old appeal won’t work,” said BJP leader Nand Kishore Yadav. “The old formula of M-Y (Muslim-Yadav) is no more relevant. OBCs and EBCs, which were his support base earlier, have switched their loyalties to BJP and that is because of the charismatic leadership of Prime Minister Modi,” he added.
“Though we did not win the last couple of elections, yet the downtrodden trust Laluji. That’s why our vote percentage never declined much,” said RJD national spokesperson Manoj Jha.