PATNA: Muslims may be the minority community, but in Bihar, they are the biggest electoral block with their votes often playing the role of kingmaker. Close behind them is the Hindu upper caste, which is back as a game changer in the present state of electoral arithmetic.
The 16.9 per cent Muslims in the poll-bound state were traditionally Congress supporters, but the Bhagalpur riots of 1989 made them look at alternative parties. In the 1989 Lok Sabha elections, Muslims voted overwhelmingly in favour of non-Congress parties, mostly for V P Singh’s Janata Dal. A year later came the reservation recommendations of the Mandal Commission, and thus started the process of the Congress’ marginalisation.
The community soon became a major political asset for RJD chief Lalu Prasad, who built his own core constituency better known as M-Y (Muslims-Yadavs) that helped him to rule the state for 15 long years. After the 2005 Assembly elections, this social combination started cracking with some Muslims opting for other secular parties like JD(U) and Congress. With a strong concentration in Bihar’s Seemanchal region in its northeast, the community has a capability to shift the equation in about 100 constituencies with 10,000 to 70,000 votes in each.
In the last Assembly elections, RJD-led parties won only 19 seats and were runners-up in 37 constituencies. So, in at least in 56 constituencies, RJD-led parties were a force to reckon with. Muslims’ homogeneity on political preferences forced almost all political parties to come out of their own agenda to woo them. However, JD(U) chief Nitish Kumar tried to break their consolidation by encouraging Pasmanda Muslims (backward Muslims) politics. His endeavour failed to work after the emergence of Narendra Modi in the BJP.
The RJD-JD(U) alliance is another significant political development. Since both the parties adhere to their pro-Muslim posture and principles of secularism and with the Congress as an ally, they have a good chance to win the minority community’s support.
“With a change in the political scenario when a former BJP ally is leading the secular alliance in the state, Muslims have a difficult choice,” said Akhatarul Iman, a former legislator and now president of All India Majlis-e-Ittehad-ul-Muslimeen (AIMIM).
The electoral calculus is not so simple this time as a third front led by Mulayam Singh Yadav came into being with alliance partner NCP. Mulayam’s SP and the NCP have floated a Muslim face in Tariq Anwar as their choice for chief minister.
Some key Muslim leaders this time include Abdul Bari Siddiqui, who was the leader of the RJD legislative party and is considered very close to Lalu. He will contest from Ali Nagar constituency in Darbhanga.
Another Muslim face in the fray is Shahid Ali Khan, a former minister in Nitish’s Cabinet who rebelled and joined Jitan Ram Manjhi. Khan will contest from Sursand constituency of Sitamarhi. Former minister Javed Iqbal Ansari will contest from Banka.
Another kingmaker is the Hindu upper caste, which was considered the most dominant class in the state till 1990. After the Mandal Commission’s recommendations, OBC voters started dictating their terms to parties. Even the BJP brought in OBC faces like Sushil Modi, Nand Kishore Yadav, Prem Kumar and Rameshwar Chaurasia to lead the party in the state. The choice of Nitish as the chief ministerial candidate at that time was due to Mandal politics.
Gradually, the 14 per cent upper caste voters turned kingmaker when political parties were craving the larger pie of OBC voters. The 2005 Assembly elections proved that OBC voters were no more monolithic in their support to Lalu; a large section of them supported Nitish and his party.
In the 2000 Assembly elections, 31 per cent upper caste voters preferred BJP, with 22 per cent favouring Congress and 19 per cent JD(U). In the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, 63 per cent of upper castes voted in favour of BJP with 8 per cent voting for JD(U). Congress got only one per cent of their votes. The reason for this shift from JD(U) may have been that upper caste voters rejected Nitish parting from the BJP. Political observers feel that JD(U)’s upper caste votes will get further eroded after its alliance with RJD.
“How can the upper caste disown Nitish, who put the state on the trajectory of development, which benefited them most,” said JDU spokesperson Niraj Kumar.
Despite Lalu’s clarion call to bring back “Mandal Raj II”, Nitish is still hopeful of getting some tactical support from upper caste in key constituencies where he will field upper caste candidates. Nitish has also maintained a safe distance from Lalu in the election campaign to keep his cultivated support base intact. At the same time, a small split of upper caste votes in favour of Congress and JD(U) can spoil the game plan of the saffron brigade, which is taking their support for granted.
Upper caste voters are not homogenous like Muslims, and there is a long history of political rivalry among them, particularly with the dominant Rajputs and Bhumihars. They may vote for seasoned leaders from JD(U), Congress or even independents. Upper caste voters are too scattered in many constituencies where they alone can’t help a candidate win, but their tactical support will certainly help them win the electoral battle.