LUCKNOW: The arithmetic and chemistry seem to be perfect. When UP CM Akhilesh Yadav and Congress vice-president Rahul Gandhi started talking about an alliance in early December, their priority was the combined vote share. It was approximately 40 per cent in the 2012 elections when the SP won 224 seats and Congress 28. Even in the 2014 Modi wave, the two outfits logged around 30 per cent, enough to form a government in UP.
The coming together of the two parties changed the traditional equations. The first major change is the state, which saw four-cornered contests for over three decades, will now see a three-cornered one.
For Muslims, SP formed by Mulayam Singh Yadav, who has earned the sobriquet of ‘Maulana Mulayam’ for his pro-minority stances, has been the first preference since the early 90s. Only once, when Mulayam joined hands with Babri Masjid demolition ‘accused’ Kalyan Singh in 2009 that they deserted SP in favour of the Congress and its Lok Sabha poll tally rose to 22.
A strife-ridden weak SP was forcing them to ponder. BSP chief Mayawati pitched herself as a potent alternative to the BJP, an average Muslim’s biggest consideration before voting. But, just when her overtures appeared to have borne fruits, Akhilesh and Rahul sealed the pact.
Muslims have a formidable SP-Congress alliance to back. The alliance will also appeal to the youth and urban and upper caste voters.
SP and Congress candidates are contesting many seats in the third phase. SP patriarch Mulayam Singh Yadav’s flip-flop and Akhilesh’s uncle Shivpal Singh Yadav’s anti-alliance statements will not help either. The greater Muslim support to the coalition may lead to counter-polarisation of Hindus in BJP’s support.
The alliance is bad news for BSP. Mayawati has given 99 tickets to minority community candidates in anticipation of a groundswell of support. If the support remains half-hearted and is divided between BSP and the SP-Cong alliance, it will help the BJP.