THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: Even as the three major political fronts have begun reviewing their poll prospects in the just-concluded assembly elections, initial assessments in the Left camp indicate a possible UDF comeback. While the UDF camp calculates 80-85 seats in their favour, the BJP estimates wins in 5-7 seats.
CPM sources said, according to reports from districts, the LDF may suffer major setbacks in three districts -- Thiruvananthapuram, Kollam and Kozhikode -while it can make major gains in Palakkad and Kannur. Going by internal assessment, a portion of Left votes have gone to the BJP too. A clearer picture will emerge only after Sunday’s party state secretariat meet, which will review reports from district units.
There are indications that the Left could lose many of its sitting seats. Of these, the biggest setback could be in the capital district, where it won 13 out of 14 seats last time. The Left camp feels that the tally could drop to 6-7 seats this time around.
“It won’t be surprising if we lose some sitting seats like Nemom, Vamanapuram, Neyyattinkara, Kattakkada and Aruvikkara. Of these, Nemom is likely to go to BJP, while we would be able to retain Parassala, Kazhakoottam, Attingal, Vattiyoorkkavu and Varkala. As far as the CPI seats are concerned, the LDF would win Nedumangad, but we are not sure about Chirayinkeezh. It seems the BJP, too, has got a share of Left votes,” said a district leader. In the other two seats, Kovalam and Thiruvananthapuram, too, the CPM doesn’t see winning chances.
In Kollam district, the LDF is facing a tough fight in at least 11 constituencies, including in the sitting seats of Kollam, Chavara, Kunnathur and Chathanoor. The party is not very confident of capturing UDF’s sitting seats of Kundara and Karunagappally. In Kozhikode district -- where the LDF has 11 out of 13 seats -- the ruling front may lose sitting seats like Perambra, Balussery and Nadapuram, according to initial assessment. Reports from a few other districts like Alappuzha too paint a not-so-rosy picture for the ruling front.
Senior leaders admitted that reports from districts are not very encouraging. A senior Left leader said the LDF may win just about 70 seats.
“It’s true that we faced tough fights in some pockets. We are hopeful of just crossing the 70-mark. However, only after reviewing the district reports can we arrive at a final conclusion,” the leader said.
Meanwhile, the Congress camp in the state, calculates that the UDF could win a moderate majority.
“According to our calculations, 80-85 is certain, which may go up in case of a hidden wave in our favour,” said a political affairs committee member. It is estimated that the FCRA row has come in favour of the Congress.
The BJP’s entry could be the real reason for a possible LDF setback, pointed out a leader. Going by its initial assessments, this time around the BJP calculates 5-7 seats, including Nemom where party state chief Rajeev Chandrasekhar is the candidate. Most of these are among the 9 seats where the party came second in the 2021 polls. The saffron party is also hopeful of increasing its vote share to 17-19% in this poll.