NEW DELHI: The Central Water Commission (CWC) has commissioned an internal study to forecast four weeks’ advance floods in strategically important areas of the country, utilising Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning (AI-ML) in the monsoon season, this newspaper has learnt.
The study is designed to identify flood hotspots in advance, facilitating better preparedness and mitigation efforts.
Till now, CWC mostly depended on IMD’s forecast, which is not effective in long-range forecasting. The internal study, referred to as Extended Range Prediction (ERP), will be used for internal purposes, such as enhancing defence readiness and disaster mitigation in vulnerable regions like the Himalayan area. The ERP will operate for 4 weeks to precisely analyse and predict flood or glacial lake outbreak forecasts.
So far, the AI-ML model has been tested at 94 stations within the Ganga, Brahmaputra, and Godavari river basins in 2025. Results indicate that 31 stations (23 in the Ganga basin, 9 in the Brahmaputra basin, and 1 in the Godavari basin) achieved an accuracy rate greater than 75% across all four weeks.
The study is expected to predict areas that may be affected by flash floods. Last year, the CWC model was applied to the transboundary Jaldhaka River basin from October 1-5, employing the Rainfall Runoff Inundation Model to forecast flash floods.
The study will utilise flash flood data from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) to identify regions likely to experience sudden flooding.