CHANDIGARH: India and Pakistan relations remain at risk for nuclear conflict, according to the Annual Threat Assessment of the US Intelligence Community presented to the US Senate on Wednesday.
According to the 34-page report, though India and Pakistan do not seek to open conflict, conditions exist for terrorist actors to continue to create catalysts for crises.
The 34-page report noted that while both countries aim to avoid escalation, the presence of terrorist actors keeps the region vulnerable to sudden crises.
"India-Pakistan relations remain a risk for nuclear conflict given past conflicts where these two nuclear states squared off, creating the danger of escalation. The terrorist attack last year near Pahalgam, in the Indian Union Territory of Jammu and Kashmir, demonstrated the dangers of terrorist attacks sparking conflict," the document said.
"President Trump's intervention de-escalated the most recent nuclear tensions, and we assess that neither country seeks to return to open conflict, but that conditions exist for terrorist actors to continue to create catalysts for crises," it said.
On South Asia, the document said that ISIS-K (Islamic State Khorasan Province) maintains a foothold in the region and aspires to conduct external attacks, but the Taliban is improving its security services and has taken aggressive action against it.
"The Taliban has conducted extensive raids against ISIS-K targets, probably thwarted some attacks, and driven some ISIS-K leaders to relocate to neighbouring countries," it said.
The assessment report also raised concerns over Pakistan’s advancing missile capabilities, as it stated that Pakistan continues to develop Inter-Continental Ballistic Missiles (ICBM’s) normally classified at a range greater than 5,500 kilometers. This means Pakistan will have the capability to strike targets beyond South Asia and if these trends continue, ICBMs that would threaten the US.
"Relations between Pakistan and the Taliban have been tense, with intermittent cross-border clashes, as Islamabad has become increasingly frustrated with anti-Pakistan terrorist groups’ presence in Afghanistan while Islamabad faces growing terrorist violence,’’ it states.
The document said on February 26, the Afghan Taliban launched strikes against Pakistani military positions along their shared border, claiming retaliation for prior Pakistani airstrikes.
Pakistan responded within hours by bombing Afghan border provinces and the capital Kabul the first time Pakistan has struck Afghanistan's urban centres, it said.
"The fighting has continued since it erupted. Pakistan’s army chief warned this month that lasting peace requires the Taliban to sever ties with militants targeting Pakistan. The Taliban’s public posture has been to call for dialogue, but it has denied harboring anti-Pakistani militants,’’ it added.
The report also noted that China and India remained the primary source countries for illicit fentanyl precursor chemicals and pill-pressing equipment. `` Following a meeting in October 2025 between the U.S. President and Chinese President Xi in Busan, South Korea, Beijing agreed to halt the flow of fentanyl precursor chemicals to North America, issued an industry advisory notice to China-based companies, and established a new requirement for export licenses for certain fentanyl precursor chemicals,’’ it stated.
The report further added that India has increased counternarcotics efforts during the last year. In January 2026, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and other Indian officials signaled a willingness to deepen engagement with the U.S. on counternarcotics. Despite these actions, Mexico-based drug traffickers continue to circumvent international controls through mislabeled shipments and the purchase of unregulated chemicals.