In 2017, global GDP figures touched $80 trillion from just $11 trillion in 1980. The introduction of disruptive technologies like the personal computer, internet, mobile phones and social media have been key drivers for this growth. Today, the most valuable companies in the world are Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Facebook, Microsoft — all tech companies.
Closer home, the Chinese economy went from $191 billion to $12 trillion, and the Indian economy went from $183 billion to $2.6 trillion during the same period. China took advantage of the opportunity created by computing and became the digital manufacturing hub for the world, opening its economy for foreign direct investment from 1980 onwards.
On the other hand, India opened its economy only in 1991 and its exposure to the opportunity created by computing was limited to providing IT services to multinational corporations. But today, we have a vibrant startup ecosystem and our large domestic market of 1.3 billion people is adopting digital technologies powered by mobile technologies. The valuation of $16 billion at which Flipkart was sold is an indicator of the opportunity in the future.
We have today 20+ startups valued at more than $1 billion. This number will double over the next 5 years. If our economy continues to grow at 7-8 per cent annually, we will become a $10 trillion economy in the next 20 years. The per capita income will grow from $2,000 to $7,000. By purchasing power parity, this is equivalent to $20,000 and the middle class will be more than 60 per cent of the population, or 800 million, at least.
In India, we are now creating new products that are better, cheaper, provide equal or better results and are environmentally sustainable. I will use a few examples from healthcare, but this is true for many industry sectors. Niramai (www.niramai.com) does breast cancer screening using thermal images. Here, the need for trained technicians and radiologists is reduced. Thermal cameras are significantly lower in cost to X-Ray tomography machines (by a factor of 10). And since thermal cameras are portable, breast cancer screening can be done using mobile vans and in semi-urban and rural locations.
Sigtuple (www.sigtuple.com) is another example of a similar phenomenon. Sigtuple can disrupt how medical laboratories test blood smears for pathogens. In India, we can conduct scientific research and field trials at lower costs. This means that it is going to be cheaper and affordable to a larger percentage of the population.
Bugworks (www.bugworksresearch.com) is one of the companies doing research in finding drugs for combating antimicrobial resistance. Flipkart and its sale at $16 billion has shown that we can create huge valuations. There are at least 20+ unicorns in India today and this number will increase in the next 5-10 years. Hence, I am optimistic about our future and the opportunity it provides to create world-class, global businesses in India.
All across the world, the computing model is going through a transformation from algorithm-based problem solving to artificial intelligence and machine learning. This breakthrough will change the way computers are used. While current repetitive or mechanical jobs might be affected, future jobs promise to be more enriching with computers augmenting human capabilities and intelligence.
(Views expressed by the writer are personal)