BJP will definitely attempt to pull down govt, says Prof James Manor, who has authored books on Indian politics, including Mysore State, and is Professorial Fellow, Institute of Development Studies, University of Sussex, England.
The BJP sweeping to power at the Centre means that Karnataka is not free from efforts to destabilize it, considering the brute numbers. How safe is this government under HD Kumaraswamy?
It is already obvious that the BJP will try to destabilize the Congress-Janata Dal (Secular) coalition government in Karnataka.
The BJP may seek to engineer enough defections to gain a majority in the state Assembly, or persuade JDS to dump the Congress and form a coalition with it. One key question here is -- how much, and for how long, will the BJP rely on B S Yeddyurappa to lead such an effort. National BJP leaders are not too pleased that he had defied them and started the Karnataka Janata Paksha, and also regard him – with some reason -- as a not-so-competent political manager and chief minister. There are signs that the BJP may prefer to, sooner or later, rely on people with hardline Hindutva views instead of Yeddyurappa, in the (mistaken) belief that Karnataka is ready for more polarization. Their preference for hardliners was obvious from the appointment of Anant Kumar Hegde as Union minister, and choice of Lok Sabha candidate in Bangalore South, Tejasvi Surya.
The coastal areas are so strongly in favour of BJP that even if the Congress had fielded Rahul Gandhi, it would have been difficult for him to win. Where do you think the Congress narrative failed?
Polarisation is very strong in Karnataka’s coastal districts, unlike in other parts of the state. We must remember that under an earlier BJP state government, certain ‘vested interests’ indulged in violence to enforce their code of conduct. Voters reacted by giving the Congress many seats in the next state election. So we should not overestimate the appeal of ‘rightist forces’ in Karnataka.
Could there be some truth in the allegations that the JDS spent Rs 150 crore in Mandya to bribe the voters?
Most political parties in Karnataka and other states hand out gifts to voters before elections -- I have seen voters getting bicycles, lamps, blankets, liquor and cash. India’s voters have already provided a remedy to this -- they take the gifts and then disregard them when deciding how to vote. Look at the results since 1977 -- ruling parties, which almost always had more money – lost about 70 per cent of the time.
City dwellers treat election day as a holiday, and the vote percentage has dropped to just 50 per cent. Is there a serious systemic disconnect with the voters?
The problem has multiple causes. For example, many middle-class voters are disillusioned with all parties in general. They also believe that their votes will be heavily outnumbered by less prosperous groups and the rural majority. This is a problem India will just have to live with.