BENGALURU: The voter turnout on May 10 will be the last and most important factor which will have a bearing on the outcome of the Karnataka election results. Higher the voter turnout, the more unpredictable the result, with all political parties, especially the BJP, Congress and JDS having traction among the voters, according to experts.
This time, leaders from national parties have campaigned extensively, including about 100 from the BJP, led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and about 50 from the Congress. The regional JDS hit the campaign trail early on, with its Pancharatna programme branching out across the state, while the AAP campaigned extensively in urban spaces. Together, such sustained campaigning could have an unprecedented effect on voter turnout this time, with the electorate coming out to have a say.
In the 2013 assembly polls, the state recorded 70.23 per cent turnout, and in 2018, it was 72.13 per cent, the highest for Karnataka since 1952. Anti-incumbency and other issues played a role, as people found a reason to cast their votes without fail, and observed a leader, adding that distribution of inducements and money also had an impact.
Srinivas, a Congress sympathiser from Amaravati in Andhra Pradesh, who had camped here for several days, suggested that parties bring the electorate to polling booths, as high voter turnout is likely to help the opposition, as anti-incumbency is a prime factor.
Psephologist Prof Sandeep Shastri said voter turnout will certainly have a bearing on the results but it depends on the constituency and regions, such as Old Mysuru, Kalyana Karnataka, coastal, Mumbai-Karnataka and central Karnataka. “If there is anti-incumbency, voter turnout is higher and is likely to hurt the ruling party. However, there is no empirical data to prove it,” he said.