Kerala economy feels the pinch as Gulf dreams slip on oil price dip

Thomas Augustine (name changed), in his mid-50s, had a short break in his mind when he returned two years ago to Kerala from Qatar, where he was working for CCC Oil & Gas.

KOCHI: Thomas Augustine (name changed), in his mid-50s, had a short break in his mind when he returned two years ago to Kerala from Qatar, where he was working for CCC Oil & Gas. He was expecting his employer to offer him a fresh contract.

Except it was not. The company told Augustine not to wait for a contract as it stopped hiring people over 40, a strategy to slash jobs in the wake of slump in global crude prices and decline in new investments in the oil and gas sector in West Asia. “I’ve attended an interview with another company in the Gulf and completed the medical procedures. I have been waiting for their call for the last six months,” said Thomas - his voice barely concealing his deep anxiety.

If Augustine still harbours hopes of returning to West Asia, Jaison Abraham from Kanjiramattom near Chottanikkara, Ernakulam, is trying his luck here. Two years ago, Jaison had returned from the Gulf, where he worked as an electrical supervisor for over a decade.

He was employed with Hyundai Engineering & Construction, drawing around Rs 70,000 per month. “I’ve waited for nearly one-and-a-half years for a call from Hyundai. But I was later told that they have no major contracts, hence stopped hiring,” he said. He has now signed up with online taxi operator Uber and runs a cab service in Kochi.

Augustine and Jaison are just two signboards. There’s a dark underbelly to their story - large number of Keralites who have lost their jobs in the Gulf during the last two years.
The Gulf region is heading for a major slowdown and possibly a recession as crude prices, the mainstay of the West Asia economies, have slumped more than 70 per cent since June 2014.

Remittances from NRKs, estimated at Rs 1 lakh crore per annum, have been the major fuel for Kerala economy. The relentless return of people from Gulf could pose a big headache for the state unless the crude prices move up. The latest figures, released on December 30, show the declining rate of growth of remittances. The NRK deposits for September 2016 touched Rs 1,43721.35 crore - a growth of six per cent from June 2016. In the June 2015-September 2015 window, the deposits grew by nearly 11 per cent.

According to Augustine, the CCC Oil & Gas which used to employ one lakh workers -- 35,000 from Kerala-- has resorted to massive job cuts.

“I reckon that over 20,000 Malayalees have lost their jobs with CCC Oil & Gas alone and are back in Kerala,” he said.

The situation is similar at Hyundai Engineering. Going by Jaison’s account, several hundred Malayalees, who were contracted with the company, have returned home after losing their jobs. “A friend of mine, who was a foreman with a construction firm in Saudi Arabia, is now working with a cable operator in Kuttanad for a daily wage of Rs 500,” he said. He said many people have returned to West Asia, accepting lesser salaries.

“Bachelors can afford to work for a lower salary but not for people like me who have a family to support. Besides, I’ve  begun the construction of my house. There are opportunities if people are ready to work for Rs 30,000 per month,” said Jaison.

“I have a heavy vehicle licence which helped me to survive during the initial months as I drove trucks. For the last six months, I’m with Uber,” he said.

Jaison, who’s in regular touch with his friends in West Asia through WhatsApp and Facebook, said many youngsters who returned to the region were hoping to make up for the lost income by working overtime.

“But I’m told that they are not getting overtime work and are struggling with the low pay,” he said.

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