KOCHI: The Indian economy is expected to increase from $2.85 trillion today to $6.5 to 7 trillion by 2030, making us the third or fourth largest economy in the world. However, our per capita income is projected to be just around $4,000. While we will be making good progress in reducing families living in the low-income group by 65 per cent (70 million), 49 per cent (189mn), which is every second family, will still be living in low income or low middle-income category and will have a poor quality of life. We need to bend this curve and make India an upper middle-income country by 2030 so that the majority of the people of our country are able to lead a better quality of life.
From one in seven families (15 per cent) in the low-income group, we should aim to reduce it to one in 20 families (5 per cent) by 2030. Similarly, from having every third family (34 pc) in the low middle-income group, we should aim to bring it down to one in seven families (15 pc). There are three strong reasons which suggest this goal is achievable.
Firstly, states such as Tamil Nadu or high growth urban pockets will be reaching the 2030 scenario much before and with the right interventions in place, we should be able to move three out of four families in the upper middle-income group. Secondly, there is a broad consensus among experts and practitioners on the challenges India faces and reforms and new policy directions in both economic and social sectors needed for inclusive growth and human development. Third, a young and aspirational India with a median age of under 30 is impatient for progress, a better quality of life and is striving to move to the next income group as quickly as possible.
Missing piece
However, as always there is a critical missing piece, which is a decisive political mandate by the people to transform Indian into an upper middle-income country. Of course, the reforms will need to be supported by agile and quality execution on the ground which includes the adoption of impactful and innovative delivery models. Human beings always prefer incremental change unless pressed by external factors- political leadership is no exception. Probably, it is time we people of India through the right given by our Constitution provide our elected representatives with a clear mandate to transform our country from lower middle-income to upper middle-income and not leave it to chance.
Many of us may rightly ask, if this is a decisive mandate enough to make this happen. Even with a decisive mandate - we may or may not become an upper middle-income country by 2030 as many other factors and conditions both nationally and globally will have an impact. But as we have learnt from the history of other nations which have traversed this path- the odds are much higher if you have a government elected to transform and reform with a clear goal.
Shamik Trehan is the CEO of Dr Reddy’s Foundation. (The views expressed by the author are his own)