GUWAHATI: The Lok Sabha elections in Northeast will be fought in the backdrop of a series of protests in the region against Citizenship (Amendment) Bill, 2016.
The Centre had sought to get the Bill passed in Parliament to grant Indian citizenship to six persecuted non-Muslim communities from Bangladesh, Pakistan and Afghanistan who migrated till December 31, 2014.
Assam accounts for 14 of the 25 seats in Northeast including Sikkim. As such, the focus of political parties, particularly BJP and Congress, will be on it. By winning Assam elections in 2016, BJP had opened the gateway to the Northeast as it went on to capture power in several other states.
The anti-Citizenship Bill protests had kept Assam on the edge for a few months but they could hardly affect BJP in elections. This was evident in Assam’s panchayat and some autonomous council elections which the party had won. The BJP will hope to get similar support this time around.
Chief Minister Sarbananda Sonowal is optimistic about improving upon BJP’s 2014 tally of seven seats this election. “We are very hopeful that we will win at least 12 of the 14 seats. People will vote for BJP for good governance,” he said recently.
However, a lot on BJP’s success will depend on its alliance with Asom Gana Parishad (AGP). The two had fallen apart last month on the issue of Citizenship Bill. Alliance and resultant seat-sharing arrangement had done a world of good to both parties in 2016 Assam elections as it prevented the split of anti-Congress votes.
For Congress, the polls will be an opportunity to regain the lost ground. It had ruled Assam thrice on the trot from 2001-2016 until being decimated by BJP. The Congress is expected to try and capitalize on the issue of Citizenship Bill. The other issues that it is likely to play on are alleged corruption in job appointments, hooch tragedy that claimed over 150 lives, unemployment etc.
In other states of the Northeast, the polls will be fought on local issues. Arunachal, Meghalaya, Manipur and Tripura have two seats each while Nagaland, Mizoram and Sikkim have one seat each. The fight in these states is expected between regional parties and BJP-Congress.
In Arunachal, opposition Congress is trying to cash in on the failed attempt of ruling BJP to grant permanent residence certificate to six non-tribal communities which sparked off violent protests resulting in the deaths of three persons in police firing recently.
In Nagaland where BJP and Nationalist Democratic Progressive Alliance head the coalition government, opposition Naga People’s Front is expected to go hard at the ruling dispensation on the issue of protracted and unresolved Naga political problem.
In Tripura, the polls will be an opportunity for Left parties to make a mark after they were drubbed by BJP in last year’s state elections.
In Meghalaya, opposition Congress is expected to try and corner ruling National People’s Party on the issue of rat-hole coal mining which the National Green Tribunal had banned in 2014. In December 13 last year, at least 15 miners had got trapped in an illegal coal mine. So far, only two bodies could be retrieved.
In Mizoram, the contest is expected between ruling Mizo National Front and Congress. The issues here are bad roads, immigrants etc.