HYDERABAD: With the majority of the exit polls, with near unanimity, making similar predictions on the number of seats AIMIM and BJP are likely to win, now the million dollar question is who will be at the advantageous position to form the next government — TRS or the People’s Front?
Of the 119 Assembly seats, there is almost an unanimity that the MIM will get seven seats, BJP five and the Independents likely to win six to seven seats. That prediction means the remaining 100 seats will be shared by TRS and the People’s Front partners.
With 60 being the magic figure required to form the government, in the event of TRS winning 50 or less seats, it will still be in an advantageous position as the MIM, the BJP and some Independents are likely to extend their support and help the pink party retain power in Telangana.
Though it should be mentioned here that the TRS made pre-poll claims of winning 100 seats and forming the government.
The Congress-led People’s Front, on the other hand, claimed that they will win 85 seats. But if the Congress and its alliance partners fail to reach the magic figure of 60 and get below 55 seats, then People’s Front’s hopes of forming the government will be shattered as BJP, keeping in mind the recent political developments in Karnataka, will ensure that Congress and its allies will not be given the opportunity to form the government. In a scenario where TRS gets only 45, owing to the anti-Congress stance of BJP and MIM, TRS might be able to keeping either of the rivals on their side. With independents likely to sail with KCR-led TRS rather than ‘face-less’ People’s Front, the pink party might once again get a chance to rule Telangana.
Insiders of various political parties believe that the Congress candidates faced tough fight in those very seats which were once considered their bastions and where they were expected to have a cakewalk. For example, the Congress candidates in Gadwal, Kodangal, Nakrekal, Kalwkaurthy and some other seats faced tough competition from their opponents.
Key players
According to analysts, in case TRS and Congress fail to achieve the magic number of 60, both MIM and BJP, the ideological arch-rivals, are expected to emerge as key players as these parties are predicted to win more seats this time. As per the exit polls, a considerable number of Independents are also predicted to emerge winners, toppling the candidates of the big parties.
The permutations
While MIM is sure to retain its seven seats, according to reports from ground on poll day it might even add one more to its tally, if fortunes favour. BJP, which was considered a push over earlier, is set to increase its prominence in Telangana. Analysts opine that BJP might get more than five seats this time. Meanwhile, the insiders in TRS felt that a huge number of elderly voters, mostly the beneficiaries of Asara pension schemes, farmers, beneficiaries of Rythu Bandhu and women participated in the voting with enthusiasm. The participation of the youth was less this time also positioned TRS in a better place.