The triumph of Imran Khan as Pakistan’s uncontested idol could either bring a fresh air of change to the country reeling under terrorism and a growing economic crisis. Or it could signal a new low in Indo-Pak relations. by Ravi Shankar in New Delhi and Naila Inayat in Karachi
On July 26, 2018, the anniversary of Pakistan Army’s defeat by India in Kargil, the Pakistan Army won in Pakistan. Imran Khan, the darling of the Generals, has moved from the boundary of the political field to take wickets at will. How did he get so close? If victories affirm leadership, defeat defines it too. The 2013 election was 65-year-old Imran’s political coming of age—losing to veteran politician Nawaz Sharif had only emphasised his profile as the main contender to power, moving the Bhuttos to second position. It all began for Imran in 1988 when the former military dictator Gen Zia-ul-Haq offered him a position in his Cabinet.
The offer was refused but the seed was planted. Now 30 years on, Imran’s party Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) is set to lead the country. For audiences outside Pakistan, he comes across as a modern, foreign-educated, classy superstar of yesteryear, but his transformation into a rabid conservative politician has earned him the label ‘Taliban Khan’ at home. His support for the terror group, his hate and contempt for Pakistani liberals whom he calls “Westoxified” and his never-ending desire to please the religious far right made him an ideal but confused candidate of a confused nation. Imran is Pakistan’s emperor in a shalwar. With a spectacular showing in the General Elections that concluded on July 25, the PTI has triumphantly entered the mainstream, and the man who “will be the prime minister” is no longer a will be. Reasons behind the emerging Khanate in the Pakistani gestalt are many, as described below.
Proximity to the military which is the umpire in Pakistan politics, which sees him as a realistic politician.
Tacit approval of the Army’s favourite stepbrother, ISI, whose reach extends to every nook and corner of Pakistan.A pliant judiciary. Dancing with the conservative clerics and the Taliban.Establishment pressure on the media.
And last, but not least of all, his clean image as a clean public figure, untainted by financial scandals and incompetence, which have been the bane of cricket, and his appeal to youth, who yearn for a new age.
Pakistan is a young population, 70 per cent are youth. In a nation where heroes are currently in short supply, cricket has been the alternate religion. The decline and scandals of Pakistan cricket brought wistful memories of the halcyon days of Pak cricket when Imran strode the field like a colossus. Many other cricketing heroes were either his protégés or captained by him. Like India’s Sachin Tendulkar, the legacy of a great sportsman like Imran is indestructible and a matter of national pride, even to young Pakistan which has never seen him on the cricket ground.
Like Narendra Modi in 2014, Imran’s approach to campaigning was contemporary technology-friendly and youth-oriented. DJs playing fast music at his rallies and an app for ‘selfies with Imran’ were unconventional gimmicks that proved he is as innovative in politics now as he was on the cricket field. Says G Parthasarathy, former Indian High Commissioner to Pakistan: “I first met Imran Khan in 1982 during the tour of the Indian team led by Sunil Gavaskar to Pakistan. We lost the series badly. I was told by a Pakistani journalist that when Imran was asked how he bowls such fire against India, he said ‘whenever I play against India, I don’t treat it as a game, I think of Kashmir and treat it as a jihad’.”
As voters lined up outside Lahore’s National Assembly constituency on Wednesday morning, change was in the air. With anthems of Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) and PTI playing in the background, polling agents at each kiosk were willing to help anyone cast their vote even from a mile. The PML-N stronghold for decades was open for grabs. “My family is rooting for Nawaz Sharif, he has shown resolve and bravery by coming back to Pakistan. He is the only leader who has dared to speak up against the powerful military and its interference in politics. He has our vote for trying to change that,” says Mohammad Ghulam, 21-year-old techie. Hamid Ali, another voter, disagrees with Ghulam over painting the Sharifs into political martyrs or heroes. “Nawaz and his daughter are not only corrupt but are also conspirators. Imran is the only politician who can change the tide and make things happen in Pakistan. He is our last hope,” he says.
The new Badshah of Pakistan politics is an enigma wrapped in the contradiction. When it comes to realpolitik he has many professional politicians on his roster and habitual defectors sailing close to the wind in a venal system; barnacles stuck to the keel of the traditional style of South Asian politics, which is rife with corruption, misogyny and opportunism. He has a playboy image in conservative Pakistan but is married to faith healer Bushra Maneka who is also his spiritual advisor. He calls American intervention in Afghanistan, “deeply flawed”, criticises drone strikes against the Taliban, but disapproves of Pakistan’s pro-China stance— during Chinese president’s Pakistan visit, Imran had declared, “China is not bringing prosperity in Pakistan. China is bringing another crisis.” On the other hand, he calls the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor that connects Pakistan’s ports, energy sources and railways “an opportunity”. Pak political analyst Dr Pervez Hoodbhoy calls Imran Pakistan’s Donald Trump, made of the same stuff but packaged differently. “Khan received even greater appreciation than Trump. He was nominated by the TTP (Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan) as their representative to last year’s (cancelled) peace talks, the reward for leading massive “peace” marches protesting American drone strikes. Resolutely refusing to condemn any Taliban atrocity, Khan would seek to shift the blame on the US.”
The history of Imran’s affinity with Taliban is long: in 2013 when Hakimullah Mehsud was taken out in a drone strike, Imran threatened a NATO blockade. The same year when Taliban commander Waliur Rehman was killed in another drone strike, he tweeted angrily that Wali was “pro-peace” and his killing was unacceptable. He offered the Taliban an opportunity to open their offices in Pakistan to give peace talks momentum. In 2014, the Pakistani Taliban nominated Imran as a mediator in peace talks with government negotiators. His party donated Rs 550 million to madrassa Haqqania, led by Samiul Haq who is known as ‘Father of the Taliban’, and which is an alma mater of Taliban leaders, past and present. However, this year when TTP leader Mullah Fazlullah was killed in a US strike, Imran inexplicably chose to stay silent. Parthasarathy says Imran has the track record of being pro-Taliban and anti-India.
His two close advisors—Shah Mahmood Qureshi and Shireen Mazari—are known to be anti-Indian. Agrees Rahul Bhonsle, New Delhi-based Strategic Risk Analyst and Director, Security Risks Asia. He warns that many see Imran as a novice in administration as well as politics, propped by his charisma and proximity to the military. Says Lt Gen (retd) J S Bajwa, former Chief of Staff, Eastern Command; Commandant, OTA, the Infantry School and Director General, Infantry: “Imran Khan will be the Pakistan Army-ISI’s puppet. He is unlikely to open any new channel of communication with the NDA government because he alleges that PM Modi belongs to a hardline Hindu group. Imran will continue to rake up the issue of Kashmir in the UN and with UNHRC as he calls it a ‘freedom struggle’. Ties with Pakistan will deteriorate further.”
How Imran will handle the radical clerics who have infiltrated Pakistan’s mainstream politics—for now unsuccessfully—while the Taliban assassinates its opponents will demonstrate his ability take a hard line on terrorism. Candidates of Allahu Akbar Tehreek, the party backed by Mumbai-terror attack mastermind and globally designated terrorist Hafiz Saeed whose main plank is to make Pakistan a ‘citadel of Islam’, made its familial debut in Pakistan politics but was wiped out. Says believes Agha H Amin, retired Pakistani tank corps major, who heads the think-tank, Centre for Intelligence Operations, “Religious parties have two aspects: (a) they feel manipulated, used and thrown away by so-called secular Muslim leadership of Pakistan, both army and civil; (b) some parties are proxies of intel agencies who want to divert extremists from attacking the Pakistan army to attacking Afghanistan and India.”
The performance of the ultra-conservatives was not as good as they expected, raising questions over their popular influence. The heartening conclusion may be that the youth of Pakistan do not see radical Islam as the answer to their troubles. Yet, the Oxford-educated Imran, who has Mick Jagger for a homey, has himself swerved from his cosmopolitan image to expose a conservative streak to either please his constituency or create one. The scandals regarding his personal life including accusations of homosexuality and promiscuity have not deterred them from supporting their “ladla”. Moreover they seem to have given him a free pass in machismo-centric Pakistani society. Its youth, which sees in Imran a saviour in a system that has witnessed more scandals than wickets in recent times, are a new breed.
PTI’s growing youth base is immensely proud of their country, intolerant of protest and support the police and the military when critics suddenly disappear—traits which have earned them the derogatory moniker ‘youthia’. They are convinced India is behind terrorist attacks in Pakistan, not the Taliban or IS. Pakistan has been fighting a bitter and costly war against terror, having lost thousands of soldiers in operations against militants—according to foreign news reports, ironically trained by Pakistan’s own Army and the ISI. Around 60,000 innocent Pakistanis have died in terror attacks and suicide bombings since 2001. Terrorism’s impact on the national economy is $120 billion. Imran has made it clear Pakistan’s involvement in the war is a mistake.
The Afghan refugee influx is a burden on the economy as well. Says Bhosale, “The PTI manifesto interestingly includes a foreign policy agenda under a chapter on National Security, further indicating the application of the military prism towards relations with India. Kashmir will be pursued vigorously. The manifesto also proposes strategic dialogue, including on managing the nuclear dimension and—what could be a Freudian slip—‘security route to cooperation’, as the likely trajectory. Hopefully what the drafters meant was cooperation in the security field.”
Imran’s young constituency is sick of the political system that has been lining its own pockets while walking the tightrope between the ISI-Army combine and the democratic process. They believe the legendary Pakistan cricket icon will meet their nonpolitical aspirations such as jobs, more buying power, entertainment choices and gadgets. They see his support for the blasphemy law and the Taliban’s tribal justice system as irrelevant. According to a British Council Survey of young voters aged between 18-29 just before the 2013 elections, only 29per cent of young Pakistanis believe in democracy while 32 per cent support military rule and 38 per cent want sharia to replace the current judicial system.
The Army’s approval rating was an overwhelming 77 percent. Seventy-six percent of Pakistani students are dropouts. Whereas this time, a survey showed though 26 percent of the new women voters support Sharif’s PML-N, the PTI is a close second with 24 percent. The Pakistan Peoples Party had only 18 percent support. Gallup Poll data proved Imran right; 27 percent rooted for PTI. PML-N attracted only 22 percent. A Pulse survey found that PTI is supported by 37 percent of new voters. Polling day, which began with Imran urging 105 million Pakistanis to vote for PTI was scarred by violence and death. In Punjab, the bastion of power in the country, PML-N and PTI workers clashed in Lahore and Chiniot, where voting had to be temporarily stopped. “PML-N has been condemned by its old midwife and test tube baby doctor ISI,” says Amin.
The Human Rights Commission of Pakistan said there have been “blatant” attempts to manipulate the elections. While voting, Imran showed scant respect for the country’s elections laws, stamping the ballot paper in full public view and giving a televised interview afterwards. Both PML-N and PPP have alleged massive rigging by the Army. Imrans greatest challenge will be to deal with the expectations from the very factors that are responsible for his rise. Says Parthasarathy, “We will have to learn to deal with Pakistan in a different manner. But certainly, we will have to deal with Pakistan as we deal with Myanmar where the army is very powerful. Now everything will be upfront. This is reality that we will have to accept that Pakistan is an army-ruled state and therefore, we will have to have separate channels to deal with both the government and military.”
In 70 years Pakistan has either been ruled by its military or the two political parties led by the Bhuttos or the Sharifs. Imrahad told Pakistan’s venerable Dawn newspaper, “This is not Europe, you cannot just tell people what you stand for and they will vote for you”. Last week, at a rally in the poor suburb of Shahdara, Imran had wooed a 8,000 strong crowd declaring, “This is an opportunity to change Pakistan. You will not have it again and again.” Pakistan has chosen to believe him. For now the military that has held the country in its iron grip for decades sees him as a favourable leader. The new Captain of Pakistan has won the toss. How he scores will depend on the umpire.
Challenges
Corruption
Imran successfully got Nawaz Sharif disqualified from politics by the Supreme Court. “The struggle is now on. The corrupt political elite is trying to protect itself... The poor are getting poorer, and a tiny number of people are getting richer,” he said in an interview.
Economy
Pakistan’s external debt and liabilities have risen 76% to $92 billion since June 2013; the ratio is 31% of GDP, the highest in almost six years. Debt will keep growing as it has the highest financing need as a percentage of GDP in emerging markets over the next two years, says IMF. It has a record trade deficit of $36 billion. A full-year current-account deficit of 5.7% of GDP combined with an 18% drop in the rupee in the past year is not good news.
Poverty
29.5% of the population lives below the poverty line, states government data.
Education
Low literacy level with the rates at just 58%.
Energy crisis
Long outages often plunge homes and factories into darkness. About two-thirds of Pakistan’s energy is generated by oil and gas but there is widespread shortage of gas.
Balochistan
The region is plagued by crises such as unemployment, lack of healthcare facilities and water shortage.
Foreign Policy
Pakistan’s foreign relations are to watch out for given Imran’s extremist views. The US and Afghanistan accuse Pak of allowing the Taliban to operate out of its region.
Afghan War
Pakistan’s role in the US-led Afghanistan war has cost 70,000 Pakistani lives. For Khan, it has weakened the internal security situation and consumed over $100 billion from the economy.
Captain Controversy
Sita White scandal
Imran Khan had an alleged affair with British heiress Sita White sometime in the late 1980s. According to Sita, they had ‘one final night of love’ together in 1990 where she asked him to father her child, and Imran agreed. Tyrian White was born and Imran has spent a better part of his life denying that he fathered her. When challenged in a UK court, he failed to appear for the paternity test, with the ruling going in favour of Sita and her daughter. Sita died in May 2004 at the age of 43. Imran’s ex-wife Jemima has posted pictures on her Instagram account of Tyrian acknowledging her as her step-daughter. Tyrian is said to be close to Imran’s former wife and his two sons.
Ayesha Gulalai Wazir’s accusation
In August 2014, Pakistan’s National Assembly decided to form a special committee to probe sexual harassment allegations against Imran by Ayesha Gulalai Wazir, an MP of his own party. Ayesha accused Imran of sexting her in 2013 and continuing with it even after she had rebuked him. Imran has categorically refuted the claims and has sought evidence of the accusations, if any.
Reham Khan’s allegations
Imran’s ex-wife Reham Khan, who has recently come out with a tell-all book on the former flamboyant cricketer, has alleged that he has at least half a dozen illegitimate children, some even Indian, that he privately acknowledged to her. She has accused him of homosexuality and also seeking sexual favours in return for political patronage. She has further said that he is a habitual drug abuser.
‘Taliban Khan’
Imran has been a vocal supporter of the Taliban. He has said he is open to them operating offices in Pakistan. He has also repeatedly lashed out at the NATO and the West for carrying out drone attacks on Taliban camps in Pakistan. The organisation might just get a new lease of life in the current political scenario.
Hand-in-glove with the military
Opponents allege that the Oxford-educated Imran is being aided in his run up to the top chair by the Military, which has had off-and-on control of the 71-year-old nation. The Military does not take kindly to jailed premier Nawaz Sharif and his family. With them safely out of the way, there is no one to stop Imran’s ascent to power.
Corruption tag
Imran may have won the voters’ hearts with his promise of a corruption-free Pakistan, but his own party is not that easily taken in by his words. Thousands of his party workers recently protested outside his villa when Imran distributed tickets to corrupt politicians of the previous regime on the ground that they would bring in the much-needed votebank.
Friends
Army
Enjoys the backing of the Pak military, which was allegedly working to put Imran in power. Signals of his willingness to work with the army have often come from Imran: “It is the Pakistan Army and not an enemy army,” he told The New York Times in May, “I will carry the army with me.”
Taliban
Imran has been often criticised for not being tough on the Pakistan Taliban. When the group’s 2014 massacre at a school in Peshawar drew widespread condemnation, including even from the Afghan Taliban, Imran still pressed for opening channels for dialogues. He described the Taliban’s fight in Afghanistan as a holy war, earning the “Taliban Khan” moniker from his opponents. He even declined to comment on whether Osama bin Laden was a terrorist.
Foes
Nawaz Sharif
2019 General Elections had been touted as the Pakistan Muslim League (N)’s Nawaz Sharif vs Imran fight. For long, Imran has been trying to bait Nawaz. It was only thanks to the military’s help and with Nawaz and his political heir, daughter Maryam, behind bars that Imran could fulfill his destiny.
The Bhutto family
The scion of the Bhutto clan, Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, is only 29. Though educated at Oxford like Imran, the Pakistan Peoples Party scion and Imran share no common ground. Imran has often run him down as a dynast politico.
Farooq Sattar
The Muttahida Qaumi Movement (Pakistan) leader has often termed Imran morally bankrupt. He has time and again brought up the Sita White scandal. With his recent rise, experts say, Imran has finished Farooq’s political career.
The United States of America
Uncle Sam is watching the Pakistani elections closely. A hardliner Imran (who incidentally supports the Taliban) with the military backing him will be a nightmare for the US.
Maulana Fazl-ur-Rehman
The Muttahida Mahlis-i-Amal chief has often criticised Imran for his stand on Israel and has claimed there is no chance of an alliance with Imran. He has repeatedly stated that Imran winning the elections will not be in the best interest of Pakistan.
With inputs by Sangram Parhi, Ramananda Sengupta and Medha Dutta