President Donald Trump returned home triumphantly after attending what he felt was an immensely successful ‘Muslim Summit’, hosted by Saudi Monarch King Salman. He had interacted in Riyadh with leaders from the Saudi-sponsored ‘Muslim Military Alliance’, comprising Sunni-dominated countries ranging from Egypt to Pakistan. Trump paid special attention to leaders from Bahrain, UAE, Oman and Kuwait—Saudi Arabia’s partners in the Monarchical Gulf Cooperation Council—amidst scathing attacks on Shia-dominated Iran by his Saudi hosts. This was music to the ears for the simplistic US President. He had not only succeeded in securing a $100 billion ‘deal’ for the sale of arms to Saudi Arabia, but also felt elated by the widespread ‘Iran-bashing’ by his hosts.
The Trump administration soon received a shock. Instead of unitedly fighting Iran, serious differences arose between Qatar, where the US has its largest airbase and military presence in the region, on the one hand, and Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain and Egypt, on the other. Kuwait and Oman remained neutral. Saudi Arabia and its partners imposed wide-ranging sanctions, including a termination of diplomatic relations and a ban on over-flights, travel and trade. After initially supporting the Saudis, Trump soon backed off, realising the importance of America’s strategic military presence in Qatar. The Saudis have been irked for years over Qatar challenging their dominance and defying them on a series of issues.
Qatar has an indigenous population of just 3.13 lakh, with Indian nationals totalling double that number. But, with vast gas resources, Qataris have the highest per capita income in the world, of over $1 lakh. Moreover, given the fact that Qatar shares the largest gas field in the world with Iran, its ruler doesn’t support Saudi Arabia’s tantrums against Iran, or give it a free run in determining regional developments. Challenging Saudi Arabia, Qatar supports the radical Palestinian group Hamas, the Opposition Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, and radical groups in Libya and Syria, which have no love lost for Egypt, Israel and Saudi Arabia.
While Nawaz Sharif is busy facing domestic challenges, with strong opposition to his joining the Saudi-led Sunni Muslim alliance, India has kept away from these rivalries. Stability in the Gulf Region, where six million Indians reside and remit back over $50 billion annually, is crucial. India also gets over 60 per cent of its oil imports from the region. It now seeks new investments, especially from Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Qatar’s importance cannot be ignored. It plays a predominant role in meeting our growing requirements of natural gas, with gas imports presently around $10 billion. Indian construction companies, moreover, have a presence in Qatar, while our exports exceed $1 billion.
Prime Minister Modi is heading for the US and, thereafter, to Israel.
While India wisely avoids taking sides in the fratricidal disputes across the Islamic world, it would be useful if we suggested to both Washington and Tel Aviv to incentivise Qatar to revert to its earlier policies. Qatar had the best relations with Israel in the Gulf region a few years ago. It is going to require considerable diplomatic effort by the US and Gulf neighbours such as Oman and Kuwait, to bridge the differences between Saudi Arabia and Qatar, because of personal animosities and their differing interests, on relations with Iran. It is also time to press Qatar to improve the appalling living conditions of Indian workers, just like the UAE.
While we now have an established ‘Act East’ Policy, it is perhaps time to craft a comprehensive and imaginative ‘Act West’ Policy, in a growingly turbulent Islamic world. India is today a major exporter of petrochemical products. Enhanced investments from the Gulf countries in petrochemicals and fertilisers would naturally be welcome.
G Parthasarathy
Former diplomat
dadpartha@gmail.com