The Budget has been ‘presented’ by the Finance Minister but it hasn’t created any ripple, far less a favourable wave. The grandiose Health Scheme announced has been dismissed as a ‘jumla’—and not only by the political opponents of the NDA government. Statistical sleight of hand is no longer enough for the government to get out of the corner where it seems to have painted itself. Demonetisation is a fading but yet painful memory. GST, after implementation, remains a work in progress—hardly reassuring. Petrol prices are spiraling with a cascading effect. The voter is experiencing the pinch and is beginning to suspect that the government into the fourth year of its term is flying on empty. And it is not only the economy that is causing serious concern.
The unrest in the countryside is deeply disturbing. The plight of the farmers seldom finds place in headlines but what is wreaking havoc is the lumpenisation of protest. Agitations triggered by demands for reservation have repeatedly brought to streets not only hot-headed well-off youngsters perpetually high on ‘identity politics’ but also a motely crowd of anti-social elements who have mastered the art of blackmailing those in power. From Haryana to Gujarat, we have witnessed the impotence or opportunistic unwillingness of the governments to deal firmly with those who break law masquerading as fighters for their rights.
What is referred to euphemistically as the lunatic fringe is on the rampage-making reckless statements, indulging in hate speeches, letting loose lynch mobs and brandishing muscle at the drop of the proverbial hat. Appeasement of ‘hurt sentiments’ of a particular community has led to a serious erosion of the Rule of Law. The Central government seems helpless or worse, complicit. Motormouths in the BJP and RSS continue to run amok. Loose canons booming so loud can’t win any battles.
Troubles are mounting with allies. The Shiva Sena has declared its intention to contest elections on its own and Chandrababu Naidu is busy issuing thinly disguised ultimatum. The Akalis and PDP are like twin Albatross around the neck that can only drag the BJP down at the elections. It is difficult to overlook that the state of Jammu and Kashmir is sliding towards the precipice only because the BJP can’t resist the temptation of sharing power. This has dangerously blinkered the vision of the government.
The neighbourhood is simmering with discontent and the immediate environment has changed to India’s disadvantage in recent months. Violations of ceasefire and incursions across the border with Pakistan are endemic. The people are tired of the government’s stock response that is restricted to condemning Pakistan’s perfidy and cowardice or paying tributes to our martyrs. The crisis in Maldives has distracted attention from the PM’s visit to the Gulf and Palestine. It has sharply exposed the chinks in our armour. Ever since he took the oath of office, Narendra Modi has tried to forge new strategic partnerships and explore options to protect the country’s national interest.
He has treated us to a dizzying display of ‘diplomatic’ footwork. Now that the chips are down, the moment of truth has arrived. The harsh reality is that in our immediate neighbourhood in South Asia we can’t expect the US or any other power to secure our interests. Pakistan and China will continue to fish in troubled waters. Be it Maldives, Nepal, Bangladesh, or Sri Lanka. Political discontent is rife in all these countries and elements inimical to India have steadily gathered strength.
For the moment, the tussle between the executive and the judiciary is not at centrestage. One doesn’t know when the ugly controversy will reignite. In brief, the political climate has changed drastically since 2014 Lok Sabha elections. Recent election results from Rajasthan and elsewhere haven’t been very reassuring for the BJP. It can no longer remain complacent in the belief that RaGa will blunder as usual and gift it with electoral victory. Nor can it find everlasting comfort in the index of disunity among the ranks of the Opposition.
Nitish Babu’s threat may have been neutralised in Bihar but Uttar Pradesh continues to pose difficult questions. Mayawati, Mulayam Singh and Akhilesh Yadav have been silent, and their silence is ominous. Yogi Adityanath may be well meaning and cleaner than any BJP stalwart in the state but doesn’t instill confidence among the minorities and the Dalits.
The perception is that he is essentially a religious leader catapulted into the CM’s hot seat. Caste politics in UP is complex and Yogi has to walk a very tight rope. Battle cry to build the Ram Temple at Ayodhya can’t rally round the young voters. All of them cutting across caste and community want development. They have waited patiently for four years. It’s anybody’s guess how much longer will they wait.
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