Meteorologists are telling us that the summer that has reached our doorstep is going to be an exceptionally hot one. As far as politics is concerned the mercury has already started shooting up ominously. As the elections in various state Assemblies near, the likelihood of unprecedented ‘Extreme Events’ is increasing. The shocks administered by the voter to the over-confident and arrogant BJP in Gorakhpur and Phulpur are—some suggest—just the tip of the iceberg that is going to sink this Titanic.
Other analysts continue to maintain that Amit Shah and Co haven’t lost the Old Touch—the capacity to bounce back from the ropes after receiving a body blow that packed a Knock-Out punch. They point to the retaliation in elections to the Rajya Sabha from Uttar Pradesh—sharp, swift and stinging. It has left BSP-SP badly bruised with hopes of ‘Bua-Babua’ providing the nucleus for a winning alliance for the battle in 2019 fading fast.
The Delhi High Court has pronounced the Election Commission decision to unseat the AAP MLAs in Delhi as ‘bad in law’ and asked it to reconsider the case. Unfortunately, the President had—on recommendation of the EC—signed the order, and this judicial decision has resulted in erosion of credibility and competence of the institution.
There have been allegations in recent past that the EC has been more ‘sympathetic’ to the ruling coalition at the Centre than the ‘aggrieved’ opponents and has been allegedly unfair in scheduling elections or indifferent to complaints about malfunctioning EVMs. Judicial review is enshrined in our Constitution, but who will decide when the review threatens overreach? Tempers are already beginning to fray.
How can the elected representatives of the people—who claim sovereignty on their behalf—function if judges can by a stroke of their pen undo what has been decided in the Parliament or State Legislature? On one hand there are legitimate serious concerns about emasculation of constitutional authorities, institutions and flouting of democratic norms and conventions by those in power, on other are equally serious and disturbing complaints about the political parties in the Opposition playing with fire dangerously stoking casteist and communal passions.
What we are witnessing is a seesaw battle ever since Ahmed Patel’s election to RS from Gujarat. The ‘coup’ registered by one side is countered by a ‘counter coup’ by the other making it impossible to assess the outcome of the next skirmish. First Delhi, then Bihar punctured the myth of invincibility of the NDA with Narendra Modi and Amit Shah at the helm. Then Uttarakhand and Arunachal Pradesh dented the image. Gujarat Assembly elections revived the comatose Congress and encouraged the hangers on to relaunch the unguided RaGa missile once more.
True to form, it continues to stray from the projected trajectory and refuses to deliver. But how long can the BJP hope to win in states like Assam and Tripura only due to sheer incompetence and suicidal tendencies displayed by the Congress?
Forget the forever floundering Rahul, capable challengers like Sachin Pilot have begun to loom large who can unseat the incumbents. Capt Amarinder Singh appears firmly ensconced in Punjab and it seems unlikely that BJP can upstage Naveen Babu in Odisha. For NDA, the major headache is its own allies—from a disastrously debilitating partner like Mehbooba Mufti in Jammu and Kashmir to the increasingly unreliable Uddhav Thackeray and Chandrababu Naidu, not to forget the grumbling Nitish Kumar.
There are other things that are raising tempers. From neglect of crisis in agriculture to the ‘dilution’ of what in short hand is referred to as SC/ST Act and dangerous rise in number of ‘encounters’ in UP and inability of the government at the Centre to bring criminals to book are making people angry. Those who had voted BJP to power are beginning to feel frustrated. The statistics can no longer be manipulated. Nor is anyone amused by claims of deft diplomacy. As a matter of fact Sushma Swaraj’s silence since the exposure of Mosul fiasco has taken off the sheen from her much-hyped performance.
Mamata Didi continues to dance with the wolves encouraging and shielding anti-social elements who masquerade as grassroot political workers. M K Stalin in Tamil Nadu is stoking the dying embers of Dravidnadu in a last ditch attempt to regain power. Siddaramaiah’s declaration of Lingayat as a separate religion makes a mockery of Congress’s claims of being a party committed to secularism. ‘Political vendetta’ shout Karti Chidambaram and Tejashvi Yadav in unison. Prepare dear readers for a long hot summer full of extreme weather events—tornadoes, tsunamis, cloudbursts and uncontrollable forest fires.
Pushpesh Pant
pushpeshpant@gmail.com
Former professor, Jawaharlal Nehru University