If there is one state in the south where the Congress can nurse hopes of reviving its fortunes, it would be Kerala. But with its organizational strength drained, the party has a lot to do to regain lost ground.
After the rout of the United Democratic Front (UDF) led by it in the 2016 Assembly polls, the Congress is yet to bounce back in Kerala. The party leadership is often criticized for pampering some communities and antagonizing all of them in the end despite the favours showered upon such sections when in power. Still, the democratic ethos of the party gives the Congress an advantage.
Well-entrenched factionalism and the central leadership’s reluctance to deal with it make things complicated for the Congress in Kerala. The much talked about party re-organisation has almost faded from public memory, while the induction of new DCC presidents, which too is delayed, is not arousing any interest either.
The penchant of many leaders including KPCC president V M Sudheeran to make brave statements or stage peripheral agitations still continues. The party still pivots on the Oommen Chandy-Ramesh Chennithala axis, while A K Antony calls the shots on behalf of the party high command -- despite his disclaimers.
The majority of the top leaders have a huge trust deficit among the public when it comes to professing secular ideals and matching it with deeds. It is clear that the party is fighting a losing battle when it comes to regaining the trust of the majority and minority communities. Strengthening the ideological foundations is rarely given serious thought although it is a proven fact the people plumped for committed Congress nominees with true secular credentials. A few of them were re-elected to the Assembly with handsomely higher victory margins, when many of their colleagues were felled by the electorate in adjacent constituencies.
The main reason for the reverses in the last general election, apart from the flurry of corruption charges against the Oommen Chandy government was the distancing of the Muslim community from the party. While the CPM won the trust of the minority community by changing its stand on the Uniform Civil Code, the Congress is yet to voice it assertively enough, though it has placed its opposition on record. The party is not even looking at the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML), the second largest constituent in the UDF, for lessons. The IUML has taken a strong position against the civil code and is also campaigning against terrorism, which is earning it rich dividends in the Muslim community. While the UDF tally fell steeply to 47 seats in the last election, IUML lost only two sitting seats and won 18 out of the 24 seats it contested.
Adding to the woes of the Congress, Kerala Congress (M), with a band of six MLAs, has parted ways from the UDF. Though there are a few who are enthusiastic that Congress would only emerge stronger from this, the fact remains that the two parties may spoil their own broth while going their separate ways in Central Travancore, covering 3-4 districts with a large Christian presence. In the last Lok Sabha elections, Kerala was the saving grace for the Congress at the national level, as the UDF stood its ground and picked up 12 seats out of a total of 20, including one won by KC(M).
The anxiety of the minorities, particularly Muslims, over the decisions of the BJP-led government at the Centre is resulting in the strengthening of the Left. However, the LDF government led by Pinarayi Vijayan has stumbled administratively and politically within a few months of coming to power. Unless the Congress is bestowed with a strong leadership down to the district level and the party is restructured organizationally, the Congress base in Kerala will only become more vulnerable and the party can expect worse debacles.