BHUBANESWAR: If the scorching heat has got you thinking how the summer is going to pan out, here is national weather forecaster India Meteorological Department (IMD)’s prediction for March-May period. And going by the forecast, Odisha is one of the 15 States, designated as core of heat wave (HW) zone, which is going to experience above normal heat during the three-month pre-monsoon span.
The IMD on Tuesday released its Hot Weather Season forecast in which it says that there is 47 percent probability of maximum temperatures in the core HW zone to be above normal during the 2017 pre-monsoon season.
The core HW zone covers Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Delhi, Haryana, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal, Odisha and Telangana. The met subdivisions of Marathwada, Vidharbha, Madhya Maharashtra and coastal Andhra Pradesh are part of it.
The IMD says that, the forecast model suggests that above normal moderate and severe heat wave conditions are likely to prevail in the core HW zone during the season.
During the pre-monsoon season, the mean, maximum and minimum temperature are likely to be above normal. In most of the subdivisions from north-west India and along the plains of Himalayas, the mercury is likely to be above normal by above 1 degree Celsius. The temperature anomaly patterns shows an increase in magnitude of the anomalies as one moves from southern part of India to northern parts.
The season’s averaged maximum temperatures is likely to be warmer than normal by more than 1 degree Celsius in most of the met subdivisions from north, northwest India and few subdivisions from neighbouring east-central India. In Odisha, it is likely to be 0.9 degree Celsius above normal.
Similarly, the average minimum temperature may also be warmer than normal by 0.5 degree C in Odisha, Chhattisgarh, south-interior Karnataka and Rayalseema. In north-west, it may be more than 1 degree Celsius above normal. This means, apart from days, the nights may also be warmer.
The season’s average mean temperature also points at 0.78 degree Celsius above normal in Odisha and more than 1 degree C in north-west States.
The prediction for the first three weeks of March also shows that the maximum temperature anomaly in Odisha will be in the range of 0 to 2 degree Celsius. In the central, western parts abutting north and coastal areas, the anomaly could be in the range of 2 to 4 degree Celsius.
Director, IMD, Odisha Sarat Chandra Sahu said, the day temperature may rise till March 5 and go closer to 38 degree Celsius. It may drop after a change in climate - rainfall is expected too - for a couple of days. But thereafter, the mercury may rise again.
The year 2016 was the warmest year since 1901 with India averaging the annual mean temperature about 0.91 degree Celsius above the 1961-1990 average. It also recorded significantly above normal mean temperature during the March-May period when the anomaly of +1.36 degree Celsius, second warmest ever since 1901, was reported.