NEW DELHI: Three months after the National Statistical Commission released a backseries data of gross domestic product (GDP) showing Indian economy doing better under the UPA, the government released “official” back series data, which has lowered GDP growth rates for the UPA regime and tilted the numbers in favour of the NDA.
The statistical commission’s study had led the United Progressive Alliance to claim that growth under its administration was higher than under the National Democratic Alliance’s rule. Sensing the trouble, the government dismissed the report saying the estimates are not the official and after delay of three months the Central Statistics Office (CSO) on Wednesday released the “official” back series numbers.
As per the CSO back series data, the economy in 2010-11 under the UPA grew by 8.5 percent against the earlier estimate of 10.3 per cent. What is interesting that the NSC data in August had shown it at 10.08 per cent against 10.3 per cent. Also growth in 2008-09 has been revised downwards to 3.1 percent against old series estimate of 3.9 percent.
The average growth rate during the UPA-II regime between 2008-09 and 2012-13 has been revised at 6 percent, while the average growth rate in subsequent five years under the NDA stands at 7.12 percent, which has triggered a controversy over the methodology, just ahead of the polls.
Defending the methodology Rajiv Kumar, Vice President Niti Aayog said that the difference is because old series under-estimated the impact of the global financial crisis and over-estimated the rebound from the crisis.
“The methodology used to back-cast the new series data now is different from the method used by the statistical commission. The two are not comparable. In back series released today the data has been recalibrated to reflect a more appropriate picture of the economy,” Kumar said.