KOLKATA: The announcement of election dates has set in motion roller coaster of Bengal politics, with major parties, the TMC, BJP, CPM and Congress in the last phase of firming up their election strategies and working out alliances before finalising their candidate lists. But a lot is expected to be different from 2014 in this Lok Sabha election.
First, the political equation in the state has changed. While the BJP, which won just two seats during the Modi wave of 2014, has emerged as a much stronger rival to the Trinamool Congress, former ruling parties Congress and CPM are forging an unsure alliance to win a few face-saving seats in central Bengal.
With the BJP fixing a target of winning 23 of the 42 seats, the saffron party is expected to give a tough challenge to TMC in several geographical and demographical pockets across the state. While the party is likely to bank on Balakot air strikes-powered nationalism to corner Mamata Banerjee, its strong point is its organisational growth—in numbers of RSS shakhas and BJP’s focus on booth-level committees - and its issue-based attack on the TMC government with its time-tested planks of minority appeasement, illegal immigration, corruption, internal squabbles and bad law and order situation.
Also, the BJP is ready to give a major headache to TMC by capitalising on the party’s internal squabbles, with BJP leader Mukul Roy busy trying to break away TMC leaders with substantial clout with political offers which many are finding difficult to resist.
While 23 might be a number too far-fetched in a state where around 70 per cent of electorate are rural and are beneficiaries of Mamata Banerjee’s 10 major populist welfare schemes, the party can be expected of doing good results in around 10 seats in the state, most notably in western and northern Bengal districts where it has gained from TMC infighting and public discontentment against the state government.
But the work of dislodging TMC from the driver’s seat may not be that easy for the saffron party not only because of welfare schemes, but also because TMC enjoys the solid support of the 30 per cent Muslims of the state who are a determining factor in over 26 constituencies in the state. Communal polarisation apart, the two parties are also vying for the 25 per cent Matua vote, which can affect results in 10 constituencies in south Bengal.