2019 LS polls: Exit polls show impact of ‘Modi factor’ on ground Uttar Pradesh

The BJP and its allies may absorb the 'gathbandhan' shock by losing 15-20 odd seats.

Published: 19th May 2019 10:31 PM  |   Last Updated: 19th May 2019 10:31 PM   |  A+A-

BSP chief Mayawati (L) and UP CM Yogi Adityanath

BSP chief Mayawati (L) and UP CM Yogi Adityanath (File | Agencies)

Express News Service

LUCKNOW: If different exit polls after the last leg of the big battle of 2019 are any indication, BJP is likely to climb down substantially from its peak of 71 seats in 2014 in Uttar Pradesh. An average of various polls are showing that the number of seats for BJP and its allies are around 45-50 seats, around 25-28 seats for SP-BSP gathbandhan and 2-3 for Congress.

Though a decline of 22-odd seats may give some dent to NDA's national tally, the party can also draw some solace from UP’s results if it succeeds to achieve the figure thrown up by exit polls. It could have been worse as with the caste arithmetic, the combined vote share of SP and BSP actually had the potential to sink the saffron juggernaut to the level of 20-25 seats in the state.

FOLLOW OUR FULL ELECTION COVERAGE HERE

Nearly two months of campaigning, it has come to the fore that the ‘Modi factor’ and BJP's high pitch on nationalism managed to neutralise the gathbandhan caste calculus considerably in the political hotbed of India. Also, there was a predominant positive impact of central welfare schemes on ground zero in UP. Even more, the 'timely' distribution of two instalments of the Pradhan Mantri Kisan Samman Yojna had some traction among the beneficiaries.

 

NDA

Gathbandhan

Congress

Republic TV C -Voter

38

40

2

Times Now VMR

58

20

2

India Today Axis

62-68

10-16

1-2

ABP-AC Neilsen

22

56

2

News 24 Today’s Chanakya

65

13

2

 

Average

50

28

2

The exit poll results wouldn't have been to the liking of SP-BSP-RLD alliance as they prefer to wait for the results on May 23. “Let us wait for May 23. These are just exit polls. We don’t want to comment on these figures,” said a senior SP leader seeking anonymity.

If the figure given by exit polls to the SP-BSP gathbandhan remains short of 25-odd seats less than it had been expecting, it could be because of the lack of synergy among the cadre of the two regional satraps who had been at loggerheads since 24 years. Also, many political analysts had feared that there could be problem in transfer of votes.

ALSO READ| Voters in Chandauli claim they were inked, given Rs 500 each before polling

Congress, on the other hand, seems to have failed to make much gain despite pressing its Brahmastra in form of Priyanka Gandhi into service. The grand old party doesn't seem to be adding any more than one or two seats to its two 'safe' seats.

By winning 73 seats in 2014, the BJP and ally Apna Dal had left only two to be won by the Congress and five by the Samajwadi Party, with all of them being won by the Samajwadi Party’s Yadav family members. However, the BSP had failed to open an account.

Stay up to date on all the latest Nation news with The New Indian Express App. Download now
(Get the news that matters from New Indian Express on WhatsApp. Click this link and hit 'Click to Subscribe'. Follow the instructions after that.)

Comments

Disclaimer : We respect your thoughts and views! But we need to be judicious while moderating your comments. All the comments will be moderated by the newindianexpress.com editorial. Abstain from posting comments that are obscene, defamatory or inflammatory, and do not indulge in personal attacks. Try to avoid outside hyperlinks inside the comment. Help us delete comments that do not follow these guidelines.

The views expressed in comments published on newindianexpress.com are those of the comment writers alone. They do not represent the views or opinions of newindianexpress.com or its staff, nor do they represent the views or opinions of The New Indian Express Group, or any entity of, or affiliated with, The New Indian Express Group. newindianexpress.com reserves the right to take any or all comments down at any time.

flipboard facebook twitter whatsapp