The Ottoman Empire collapsed after being on the losing side in the First World War (1914-1918). It had extended throughout the Middle East, North Africa and the Balkans after its conquest of the Christian Byzantine Empire in the 15th Century. In 1922, Turkey became a republic after first deposing its Sultan and then the Caliph of Islam. Under Kemal Ataturk, Turkey became a modern nation state with a strict secular Constitution. Turkey has been the first secular Muslim country. The Army was made defender of the Constitution.
Turkey also became a NATO member and applied to join the European Union. However, Turkey, under Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) regime, began to shift away from the spirit of its Kemalist secular constitution and towards a more Islamist domestic and foreign policy.
As Robert Fisk writes in The Independent: “When Turkey began playing the same role for the US in Syria — sending weapons to the insurgents, its corrupt intelligence service cooperating with the Islamists, fighting the state power in Syria — it, too, took the path of a failed state, its cities torn apart by massive bombs, its countryside infiltrated by the Islamists. The only difference is that Turkey also re-launched a war on its Kurds in the south-east of the country where parts of Dyabakir are now as devastated as large areas of Homs or Aleppo.”
The regime has also a waged propaganda war and pursued active opposition against Israel (once its greatest friend and ally in the region); it has very poor relations with Egyptian regime of President Sisi due to Erdogan’s support of his Muslim Brotherhood opposition; it has antagonized Russia by shooting down its warplane and is facing Russian sanctions as a result.
The regime has also launched an attack on the Kurdish movement in its southwest which it suspects will grow into an independent Kurdistan covering large parts of southwestern Turkey, northern parts of Syria, Iraq and Iran. While this policy was being implemented, Turkey was facing some serious issues.
The demographic balance in Turkey was undergoing a fundamental change. Turkey has an average total fertility rate of 2.18, but the Turkish provinces with the lowest fertility rates all cluster in the north and northwest of the country, where women on an average have only 1.5 children. The southeastern Kurdish provinces show fertility rates ranging between 3.2 and 4.2 children per female. This will alter Turkish politics in the future.
There has been an inflow of 2.5 million Syrian refugees. Turkey’s encouragement to Syrian refugees to move towards Europe has alienated the European Union and created tensions between Turkey and the EU and within the EU. This has affected Turkey’s chances — always doubtful — of EU membership. As it is, by 2013, there were 1.5 million Turkish citizens in Germany who are increasingly vulnerable.
The regime proposes to grant citizenship to 300,000 Syrian refugees. This will alter the demography not only between Turks and Kurds but also between Turks and Syrian Arabs. Opposition leader Kılıcdaroglu has been especially critical of the move saying that polls show a majority of Turks oppose the idea. Tensions between Syrian Arabs and Turks are also on the rise with Turkish protesters demanding the expulsion of all Syrians Arabs.
In economic terms, Turkey has been relatively stable though the loss of Russian tourism and business has affected its prospects. But according to the Central Bank, consumer debt is now almost equal to total personal income of Turks and they are paying 17%!! External borrowing has jumped by more than 20% during the past year.
In 2016 alone, Turkey has suffered seven terrorist attacks in its greatest city, Istanbul, and its capital, Ankara. These attacks targeted police, military, tourists and mosques goers and killed nearly 100 persons and injured many more.
Given this background, the regime announced a radical reversal of its foreign policy on 13th July. Prime Minister Yildirim announced on national TV: “It is our greatest and irrevocable goal: developing good relations with Syria and Iraq, and all our neighbours that surround the Mediterranean and the Black Sea. We normalised relations with Russia and Israel. I’m sure we will normalise relations with Syria as well. For the fight against terrorism to succeed stability needs to return to Syria and Iraq”.
On 16th July, elements in the Turkish armed forces launched an abortive coup. It would seem that the attempt by radical Islamic elements — as the regime claims — was a response to the radical reversal of Turkish foreign policy. Since the failed coup, there has been a virtual purge in the Establishment — military, judiciary, universities, media — under the extraordinary powers voted to President Erdogan. The number of those sacked has risen to 60,000!
What is more, he is blaming the US for the coup. The President and his AKP, the armed forces, the secular and Islamist opposition parties and Turkey’s critical neighbours will be all important actors in the near future. This is a critical time for Turkey with its critical geo-political location which straddles the main international trade and oil routes in the region.
Gautam Pingle is former Dean of Research and Consultancy, Administrative Staff College of India, Hyderabad.
E-mail: gautam.pingle@gmail.com