In another 24 hours, the US Presidential race will be over. This has been an acrimonious election, with a deep and often caustic hostility between the two candidates. In the welter of claims and counter-claims, public opinion has been bitterly divided — both within and outside the US — over who will make the better president. One place, however, where the event has been treated with relative nonchalance is India. New Delhi is aware that there is bipartisan consensus among Democrats and Republicans on the need for a deeper and more meaningful partnership with India. Regardless of who emerges victorious, Indian analysts feel confident that the new US President will look at India as a close strategic partner. In material terms, this translates into a continuing sale of US military hardware and defence equipment, close coordination in multilateral fora on matters of global governance, co-production and co-development of military technologies, and more maritime collaboration in the Asian littorals (particularly the Western and Eastern Indian Ocean, where there is a significant convergence of security interests). India will also look to US support for entry into Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) and other multilateral export control regimes. Washington’s steadfast support in New Delhi’s quest for NSG membership, as also a civil nuclear deal with Japan, makes many Indian observers hopeful that the new leader will be equally committed to advancing Indian interests.
In recent years, the US has emerged as India’s largest military supplier, with defense trade figures having surpassed US$ 14 billion in 2015. But New Delhi needs close cooperation from the US to ensure the success of the Modi government’s ‘Make in India’ initiative. The focus of Indian interest would be on the new President’s policies vis-a-vis China. The last thing Indian policymakers want is a revival of the G-2. That flawed notion of a special ‘greatpower’ partnership between China and the US — proposed by the first Obama administration and rejected quickly after — served to alienate many in New Delhi, also raising doubts about US commitment to a stable and peaceful Asia. Now, with growing Chinese assertiveness along the Sino-Indian border in Arunachal Pradesh and Ladakh, there is an even greater imperative for the new US Administration to eschew any suggestions for any special arrangement with Beijing which involves turning a blind eye to Chinese aggression in its neighborhood.
Indian analysts will be keen to see how the new president moves to counteract the China-Pakistan axis in South Asia. From submarines and corvettes to fighter aircraft and missile technology, Beijing has become Islamabad’s principal defence supplier, skewing, to a degree, the strategic equilibrium on the subcontinent. Despite Washington’s dependence on Islamabad for political negotiations in Afghanistan, New Delhi will be hoping that the White House’s new occupant will adopt policies that will address India’s strategic concerns, restoring South Asia’s geopolitical balance in India’s favour. Afghanistan might serve as the first indicator of a continuing US commitment to Indian interests. If Washington makes common cause with China and Pakistan, resulting in a future reduction in US military presence, India’s interests might be adversely impacted.
A leader that appreciates Indian stakes in broader South-Asia is likely to best advance the bilateral relationship. In the main, however, New Delhi needs the incoming US administration to address the threat of Pakistan based terror. In the aftermath of the terrorist attack on an Indian army camp in Uri, India has placed terrorism at the top of its political agenda. While Washington has been quick to rap Pakistan for its use of militant-proxies, it has hesitated in going beyond rhetorical admonitions. New Delhi’s expectation is that the new US President will push Islamabad into abandoning its export of terror and work towards sustaining a high level of security and intelligence coordination that could preempt potential terror attempts on Indian soil. The Indian foreign policy establishment is also hopeful that the new leader will move to improve the United States’ relationship with Russia.
For all of the benefits of close bilateral ties with Washington, New Delhi knows that the quality of its engagements with Russia and the US has suffered on account of their mutual mistrust. Indian analysts ascribe a recent antiterror exercise between Russian and Pakistani Special Forces to Moscow’s perception of strategic intimacy between India and the US. Similarly, Washington isn’t too pleased with India’s continuing defence engagement with Russia – particularly New Delhi’s dependence on Moscow for strategic military platforms. Indian observers hope that the new US President will appreciate New Delhi’s dependence on Russian platforms and systems has been the result of Washington’s reluctance to provide highgrade strategic platforms and weapons systems to India. On the economic side, the problems with Washington on economic and immigration are likely to continue. Indian citizens are the top recipients of temporary high-skilled worker visas, accounting for more than two-thirds of all H-1B petitions, but on a back of tepid economic growth in the United States, New Delhi is apprehensive that the new administration might adopt a tougher immigration laws, reducing the prospects for employment among aspiring Indian professionals. There is also hope that the new administration will plump for a better trade relationship with India than presently exists.
This does not mean Indiansat- large are not taking sides. Between the two candidates, Clinton seems more popular with the Indian-American community. She seems to enjoy the advantage of a better understanding of Indian strategic and political culture, and better foreign policy experience, having navigated through some tricky geopolitical terrain during her tenure as US Secretary of State. Many Indian’s don’t feel too comfortable with Trump’s antecedents and antics, even though the Republican candidate has in recent days reached out to the Indian-American community. Even as the American commentariat is on razor’s edge waiting for tomorrow’s results, Indian analysts have been relatively tranquil. They know that irrespective of which candidate wins the election, the trajectory of the US-India partnership will remain unchanged.
Abhijit Singh is a Senior Fellow and Head Maritime Policy Initiative at the Observer Research Foundation
Email: abhijitsingh@orfonline.orgcom