Politics in the country’s most populous state has been full of life’s little ironies. The single-minded pursuit of Muslim votes in Uttar Pradesh (UP) in the state assembly elections by almost all non-BJP parties demonstrates this. They continue to believe the myth that Muslims in the state have only one political objective—to keep the BJP out of power at any cost.
A recent study of Muslim voters in UP has confirmed what some social scientists had been underling for quite some time.
The study by Rahul Verma of the Department of Political Science at Berkeley University and Pranav Gupta of Lokniti-Centre for the Study of Developing Societies, published in the Economic and Political Weekly, looked at the last 15 years of pre- and post-poll surveys and National Election Studies for three assembly and two Lok Sabha elections and found that Muslim do not vote en bloc strategically to defeat the BJP.
Yet the myth persists. Buoyed by the open family feud in the ruling Samajwadi Party (SP), Bahujan Samaj Party chief Mayawati has exhorted the Muslims in UP to rally around her. Her message is unequivocal, if ominous: “Don’t vote for the SP or the Congress. This would only help BJP come to power!”
The vertically split SP, that had ridden to power single-handed in 2012 assembly elections primarily due to consolidated support of the Muslims and Yadavs, is conscious that the fragmentation of Muslim votes could spell its doom. The faction, led by Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav, is desperate to undo the damage by stitching an alliance with the Congress party that is desperate to retain its diminishing foothold in the state.
No doubt, Muslims in UP are not enthusiastic about the prospect of the BJP coming to power there. But they are equally fed up with the politicians using them as vote banks without addressing the basic issues —education and unemployment—responsible for their underdevelopment. The fact that political parties’ attempt to mobilise their support by offering electoral sops has failed to improve their lot, has made them deeply suspicious. That there have been over 12,000 communal incidents in UP during the SP’s five-year rule, has only deepened this suspicion. They don’t want sops but wish to be a part of the development process.
Accounting for 19.3 per cent of the electorate in the state, Muslims nevertheless, will have a significant role in deciding who will rule UP next. They comprise over 30 per cent of voters in 73 assembly constituencies and 20 to 30 per cent in another 70 of the state’s 403 assembly constituencies.
However, the concept of Muslim community as a monolithic organisation is equally mythical. Within the three main hierarchical divisions of Ashraf (nobles of Arab, Persian, Turkish or Afghan origin), Ajlaf (low-born) and Arzal (vile, vulgar, untouchables), there are many social groups of varying sizes unevenly distributed across the state. They are interdependent and more or less endogamous, similar to the Hindu castes and sub-castes. Zarina Ahmed in her perceptive study of Muslim Caste in UP notes: “In terms of stratification and social mobility, the difference between Hindu castes and Muslim social groups is one of degree and not of kind.”
The post-Babri electoral behaviour of the UP Muslims has revealed another change in their mindset. Instead of being swayed by communitarian issues, they now take other factors—such as political parties’ stand on economic empowerment, access to natural resources, gender rights and corruption —before voting.
Naish Hasan, cofounder of Bharatiya Muslim Mahila Andolan that has been agitating for abolition of the practice of triple talaq among Muslims, for instance, finds the response of secular parties to the Supreme Court’s query regressive. “Halala (triple talaq) is an issue that affects life and death of Muslim women. What is the point to live in a democracy if the clerics are allowed to take important decisions related to lives of people,” she questions.
With the SP, BSP and the Congress woo Muslim voters ahead of the UP elections, the presence of outfits such as Mohammad Ayub’s Peace Party, Maulana Amir Rashadi Madni’s Rashtriya Ulama Council and Asaduddin Owaisi’s All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) has the potential of complicating the electoral scene. Indulgence in competitive populism to garner Muslim votes could lead to communal polarisation and result on counter Hindu mobilisation, a situation that can turn explosive.