It was not for nothing that the science of map-making exploded and went through innumerable refinements during the European colonial expansion: Cartography, and understanding each zone in its specific features and in relation to others, was imperative for those who were seeking new territories. Now, within days of a stupendous political victory in Uttar Pradesh, BJP president Amit Shah, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s chief admiral, is said to have a map of 120 Lok Sabha constituencies—all virgin territories, ripe for picking before 2019.
There are also older territories to be consolidated and reinforced. It’s an operation on an awe-inspiring scale. No wonder comparisons to Alexander the Great are popping up frequently in conversations with the BJP rank and file and Sangh ideologues. Awe and raw triumphalism bloom in equal measure at a certain address at Delhi’s Ashoka Road. The thronging crowds who get to see the swank interiors on the sides of Deendayal Upadhyay’s bust are convinced they are witnessing an expansion that can only be compared to that of the Macedonian king. And if any of those 120 zones on the map seems to pose an insurmountable problem, there’s that quote attributed to Alexander: “There is nothing impossible to him who will try.”
Democratic victories being seen and read via the imagery of the imperialist expansion of a New Order is an old phenomenon. Events on a grand scale tend to get bound up with legend. In modern-day parlance, it’s called brand-building. Gandhi acquired the trappings of sainthood, Indira evoked comparisons with Durga. Watching the rise of a mass leader often defies rational analysis.
Some BJP old-timers, contemporaries of Modi, admit they never in their wildest expectations hoped to ‘conquer’ Assam. Let alone Manipur. Now the entire Northeast—Meghalaya, Nagaland and Mizoram (not to speak of Tripura!)—seems to be “ours”. To extend the incredulity, who would have thought a decade ago that governments in Kashmir, Nagaland and Manipur would have a BJP imprint?
There are other territories of high emotional value for the BJP—Kerala and WestBengal, for instance. The party has been punching above its weight in terms of oppositional noise-making in both states, and the time to convert this into hard currency will come soon: It hopes to emerge at least as the main opposition. If an outright win seems improbable, judge it by the fact that for the Modi-Shah combine, sheer audacity is part of the method. There’s also Odisha, where the BJP saw a huge vote surge in local polls recently—you can’t fault it for thinking the state is already in the kitty, like they feel with Himachal and Karnataka.
As for Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan—the crucial ‘home pitch’ states lined for polls before 2019—there may be a twist via what’s being offered as an electoral reforms package. Clubbing Assembly elections with Lok Sabha polls—to take India out of its present condition of being in a perpetual election mode—has been one of Modi’s pet themes. These three BJP bastions may be the best test-cases for the BJP to advance. One line of speculation is that elections to these states may be preponed to harvest the current euphoria. But another, more intriguing proposition is they may be postponed, and the Lok Sabha poll may be preponed so that they can be held
simultaneously. The idea is attractive in some ways. It allows the BJP to preclude any chance of an embarrassing electoral snafu in the run-up to general
elections. While such a move may be contentious and require a constitutional amendment, the very proposition can be advanced in national debates to attach itself to a ‘pro-reform’ stance.
As for the policy sphere, Modi has built up a momentum in election campaign mode, and is unlikely to get off it. Apart from the big-ticket GST, what one can expect is more schemes with a welfarist sheen. The Modi-Shah duo has already stitched up a narrative that, incredibly, carries along the middle class, the youth and the poor, cutting across castes, which is what they’ll continue to cultivate. The idea that someone like Vasundhara Raje could be brought in as Defence Minister militates against another desire: That there be no major shake-up before the President’s election, for which they are still a little short in terms of the electorate. Expect the occasion to be used symbolically in such a way that extends the Modi footprint.
As for the inexorable electoral march, in Amit Shah, they see a young ‘activist’ who’s ready to toil more to convert the mass leader’s appeal to what matters—votes. Floating on top is the seemingly
unstoppable Modi narrative, which converted even the pain of demonetisation into an asset. At the micro level, the strategy unfolds in three ways: (a) identification and removal of weak areas through strategic caste/community alliances; (b) targeted, behind-the-scenes mobilisation through personal interaction with smaller groups; and (c) big rallies by the mass leader to create a positive resonance in the media.
What helps the BJP, of course, is the current state of the Congress: Utterly demoralised and seemingly without direction. The only thing the BJP is apprehensive about is the spectre of a Bihar-like Mahagathbandhan unfolding pan-India, even if it looks improbable judging by the fractious nature of the polity. For, make no mistake, the sectors of dissent are still alive and thriving. For instance, while the BJP makes a big thing about Dalit votes coming its way, Mayawati’s voteshare has not really declined. Nor has the cumulative Muslim vote. If all hands get on
the deck, it will be a fight of the millennium. But even that will prove Modi’s pre-eminent position in Indian politics.
The author is Political Editor, The New Indian Express
Email: santwana@newindianexpress.com