Lest we forget, Himachal Pradesh too is going to the polls. Thanks to the high-decibel battle for Gujarat, the hill state is all but forgotten. A tough, straight contest between the two arch-rivals, the BJP and Congress, is heating up there as well. (The AAP, curiously enough, is sitting out this one while opting to contest in Gujarat.) Unfortunately, Himachal is contributing little to the overall debates, beyond argument points on why the Election Commission did not simultaneously announce polling dates in the two states, though results will come together, on December 18.
Flood relief was the official reason—Gujarat indeed got major relief, being flooded with sops worth `11,000 crore, thanks to the model code of conduct kicking in only from Wednesday! The poll panel’s somewhat step-motherly treatment also ensures the tinier, 68-member HP assembly would have to twiddle its thumbs for 39 days—waiting for the 182-seat Gujarat Assembly to complete its two-phase polling on December 9 and 14—before going into counting.
While their national top honchos slug it out in Gujarat, Himachal has been largely left to the manoeuvres of local heavyweights—incumbent CM Virbhadra Singh, Sukhvinder Singh Sukhu and Vidya Stokes of the Congress and the challenger BJP’s Prem Kumar Dhumal, Anurag Thakur and Union Minister J P Nadda (thrown into the mix through speculation that he has the secret backing of the central leadership as a CM candidate).
Yet, the Himachal contest is taking an edgier turn, as the shadow of Gujarat falls over it. Predicted to capture a higher voteshare and 33-36 seats, the BJP was initially seen to be the clear favourite over the Congress’s aging CM Virbhadra, who is battling an ED-CBI probe into alleged scams besides anti-incumbency and severe infighting. But it seems the gap has narrowed, making the contest more exciting than it seemed possible a few weeks ago.
Two things happened in between. The last-minute entry of scam-tainted ex-Congressman Sukh Ram and family into the BJP fold does not seem to have gone down well with the saffron party’s rank and file and the electorate. And, the Congress sweep in the Gurdaspur bypolls seems to be creating ripples, especially in districts/constituencies contiguous to Punjab. Is it reviving Congress fortunes? Yes, somewhat. Is it bringing it within striking distance of victory? Not quite. There are still factors that weigh in favour of the BJP.
To begin with, the Himachal electorate has of late made a habit of swinging between the two poles every five years. By that count, it’s the BJP turn this time. Secondly, smaller states invariably prefer to back the party in power at the Centre. Also, BJP old-timers claim that though they are greatly dismayed by Sukh Ram’s presence in their party, the negative impact would be restricted to a few constituencies.
On the influence of neighbouring states on the psyche of voters, it’s said that if the Congress consolidation by Capt Amarinder Singh next door is a factor, so would be BJP victories in Uttarakhand (incidentally the native place of Yogi Adityanath, who will soon hit the trail here) and Jammu, both of which share borders with HP. And though the BJP is hardly without infighting, the levels are nothing compared to what is raging inside the Congress after Virbhadra arm-twisted the high command into giving him a free rein, from ticket distribution to campaign planning.
The high command (or the new command), fighting perhaps its toughest contest before 2019 in Gujarat, is in no position to get overburdened or distracted by Himachal. Though a complete rout here would equally impact the political credibility of Rahul Gandhi, poised to assume presidentship of the grand old party, Gujarat holds a far bigger significance—its results will be cited all over India, till 2019. The BJP’s bastion voting against PM Narendra Modi seems an unthinkable proposition, though the fight looks tougher than any in recent history.
For, Vijay Rupani’s Gujarat is not Modi’s Gujarat. It stands bruised by sundry agitations, including by one of the BJP’s staunchest vote banks, the Patidars—who add up to 14-19 per cent of the electorate, depending on who’s providing the statistics. A young boy of 24, which means he is too young to even contest, is giving the 22-year-old BJP rule its biggest contest.
Besides Hardik Patel, there are the factors that brought him about as the symbol and mascot of the angry youth on the streets: the economic downturn, lopsided and jobless growth, farm distress, potently combining with caste conflicts. There’s Jignesh Mevani’s agitation for Dalit rights and Alpesh Thakor’s demands for OBC communities. The aggregation of these community protests, led by three Young Turks, coming behind the Rahul Gandhi-led Congress is for the first time giving the BJP some tremors in Gujarat.
It’s not a state Modi can lose at any cost. And Rahul cannot afford not to win. That’s what makes it a cliffhanger as never before. That the headlines are not about Shah’s ‘Mission 150’ but on the huge crowds at Hardik’s roadshows, the non-bailable warrant against him and his secret meetings with Rahul shows what’s dominating the mindspace in Gujarat.
Whether Thakor’s induction into the Congress and its loose tie-ups with Hardik and Mevani would translate into votes remains to be seen. That the Congress has been able to attract new allies is a sign in itself. Even if the BJP’s cautiously-built caste coalitions have cracked a bit, and once-solid vote bank of traders and farmers are none too happy after demonetisation and GST, the recent sops may change the mood. And all calculations of the rivals could go awry once Modi starts talking heart-to-heart with the Gujaratis.
Santwana Bhattacharya
Political Editor, The New Indian Express
Email: santwana@newindianexpress.com