Prabha Rao Senior Fellow, Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses
Abu Mohammad al-Adnani (the IS spokesman who was killed in 2016), and IS ideologue and Tunisian cleric Abu Muqatil (killed in May 2016) have stretched their hands over their graves to direct jihad across continents. There are now frequently-coordinated messages by the IS and Al Qaeda on the issue of targeting the kufr; an example being the message sent out by Hamza bin Laden, son of Osama bin Laden, the upcoming youth star of the group. Hamza claimed to have a network of affiliates around the world, including the Taliban, the Al Qaeda in the Indian sub-continent, and former Hizbul Mujahideen commander and Kashmiri terrorist Zakir Musa’s new group Ansar Ghazwat-ul-Hind.
These messages have impacted the Friday sermons and qutbahs in Kashmir valley, which are quoting them, and joined with powerful images of carnage perpetrated by terrorists in Europe, are contributing towards radicalising the youth. This is an emerging problem not just in Kashmir, but several vulnerable pockets of India. Another aspect that is finding mention in sermons in Kashmir, and other areas in India, as also in Western mosques, is the concept of ‘Gheerah’ (protective jealousy), which requires Muslims to protect Prophet Muhammad from blasphemy and diluting his pre-eminent position.
The Barcelona attack on August 17 though similar in modus operandi to the attacks in Nice (July 14, 2016), Berlin (December 19, 2016), and Westminster (March 22, 2017) attacks, has discernible, important differences. The intention to create panic by mowing vehicles through popular promenades was a common thread, but while the earlier attacks were more of lone-wolf initiatives, the Barcelona attack was conducted by a 12-member cell, and bears considerable resemblance to the Paris attacks—Charlie Hebdo (January 7, 2015), Paris (November 13, 2015), and Brussels (March 22, 2016).
The fall of Mosul and eventually Raqqa, and the shrinking of the IS’s space, is going to generate a re-migration of jihadis into the Afghanistan-Pakistan region, with security implications for India. Hence, Zakir Musa’s call in Kashmir for a movement beyond nationalism, is a matter of disquiet. His group is gaining traction with the unemployed youth.
The role of brothers and family in the more coordinated synchronised attacks is clear. In the Barcelona case, there were four sets of brothers, like the three sets in the Paris and Brussels cases. Closer home, we have seen that the most effective jihadist networks have family links—Riyaz and Iqbal Bhatkal and kin Yasin Bhatkal (Al Qaeda/Indian Mujahideen), or Sultan and Shafi Armar (IS), or Burhan Wani’s close friends’ network from Tral/Pulwama.
While we are given to patting ourselves on the back for containing IS in India, we cannot ignore the real dangers that still lurk. Families have been our first line of defence against radicalisation, but the existence of family-/friend-centric radicalised gangs are emerging as a reality. The jihadi environment is intensifying, and fractious areas need close circuit monitoring. In this scenario, the government needs to take a call on monitoring qutbahs. This suggestion would predictably draw gasps of horror, on the grounds that it is a hit on our secular fabric. To those, I would say that at present there is some value in adapting a Benthamite approach in politics. This is what is being done in the UAE, which monitors all Friday prayers and has been able to successfully contain terror attacks. Internet penetration in India is growing exponentially. The threat of online radicalisation, coupled with extremist qutbahs, is a noxious brew we can do without.
Our vulnerabilities are myriad. Processions for the Ganesh Visarjan are underway all over India, and is being celebrated with especial fervour in Mumbai. The Mumbai cops, hard-pressed as they are, manage the crowd very professionally, but this year with the examples of mowing vehicles and persistent messaging, the threat level is at red. For instance, the Dream Theatre group from the US will debut in India with a concert at the MMRDA grounds in Mumbai on October 8 this year. The event is bound to draw huge crowds, raising fears of an attack such as the one perpetrated on Ariana Grande’s concert in Manchester this year. A major attack would do far greater damage to the fabric of our society than regularising Friday sermons. Pro-active intervention of this kind would help the Muslim community by sending out positive messages about Islam, and help vulnerable individuals from getting further radicalised. It is time to bite the bullet on this issue.
prabhamurti@gmail.com