While the outcome of the Telangana Assembly elections will be known only on Tuesday after the counting of votes, it will go beyond deciding the fate of the ruling Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS) and the Congress-led People’s Front and have repercussions in neighbouring Andhra Pradesh as well as in national politics. The increase in voter turnout by about three to four per cent as compared to the earlier elections is causing quite a bit of anxiety.
Normally, the ruling TRS ought not to be worried as most of the exit polls suggest it would comfortably hold on to power. However, a poll survey by former parliamentarian Lagadapati Rajagopal, who enjoys greater credibility as his predictions in the past have been bang on target, is predicting a clear mandate in favour of the People’s Front. For the record, leaders of both the TRS and the People’s Front are exuding confidence in emerging victorious, based on their individual assessments, but calculators are already out.
Of the total 119 Assembly segments, as many as 103 registered over 80 per cent polling, which is unprecedented. And the rural segments saw a higher turnout than the urban ones. No surprises there, but how does one read it? Was the polling high because people in rural areas assumed it was payback time for all the goodies showered on them by the TRS government over the years? Or do people across the state really want a change in government? Reserving the answer for the counting day, here is some crystal gazing on three different scenarios that the elections could throw up.
Scenario One: If the Telangana mandate goes in favour of the TRS with it comfortably crossing the magic figure of 60, Chief Minister K Chandrasekhara Rao will not sit idle. He will revive his Federal Front that was hitherto a non-starter, to bring non-NDA and non-UPA parties together to lead a Third Front before the ensuing Lok Sabha polls, which are but a few months away. But the success of his Front would depend on the outcome of Assembly elections in four other states - Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan and Mizoram. If the Congress manages to win at least two major states in the Hindi belt, it will get the confidence to try and cobble together a coalition of other non-NDA parties to take on Prime Minister Narendra Modi before the next Lok Sabha polls. KCR will also lend his full support to Y S Jaganmohan Reddy in neighbouring Andhra Pradesh to take on Telugu Desam Party boss and Chief Minister Chandrababu Naidu there. Indeed, KCR made the Telangana elections Chandrababu-centric, by flagging Andhra’s objections to Telangana projects and the TDP’s alliance with its arch rival Congress in the run up to the polls.
Scenario Two: The Congress-led People’s Front wresting power. This would invariably be seen as triumph for the rainbow alliance comprising different parties and ideologies with the common goal of unseating the enemy. Except in Telangana, no other poll-bound state has such an alliance in place. The Telangana experiment could become the template at the national level to bring all Opposition parties together in each state against the BJP, posing a serious threat to the BJP-led NDA.
Scenario Three: The possibility of a hung Assembly. Pre-poll surveys and exit polls indicate that a few Independents, the All India Majlis-e-Ittehad-ul Muslimeen (AIMIM) and the BJP would bag anywhere around 20 to 25 seats of the total 119, leaving the TRS and the People’s Front to share the remaining 95-100. If both the TRS and the People’s Front fall short of the halfway mark of 60, the advantage could shift to the TRS as the Congress cannot possibly get support from either the AIMIM or the BJP. All it can expect is the backing of a few Independents. Would that suffice to form a stable government? On the other hand, both the BJP and the AIMIM could directly or indirectly help the TRS to form the government. In fact, the BJP could actually try to jump the queue to lend support just to take revenge on the Congress for what it did to it in Karnataka seven months ago. The situation is pregnant with possibilities.
Ch V M Krishna Rao
Resident editor, Telangana
krishnarao@newindianexpress.com