Eyebrows were raised the other day when Chief Minister N Chandrababu Naidu asserted that his government wouldn’t hesitate to move the Supreme Court if the Centre continued to drag its feet on lending assistance to the State as mandated by the AP Reorganisation Act. Coming just a week after his apparently ‘positive’ meeting with Prime Minister Narendra Modi — after an unusually long gap of one-and-a-half-years — it indicated his willingness to call a spade a spade if push comes to shove.
Last month too, he had made similar noises when the Union Water Resources Ministry put on hold the tender process initiated by the State for a portion of the Polavaram irrigation project works. But this is no fire and fury. It’s fire and ice.
His every outburst against the Centre is followed by a clarification that his remarks are not aimed at the BJP, his ally, and an appeal to party men not to speak against the Centre.
Convinced that this is an election year — he has said so at a meeting of his party leaders as recently as Saturday — Naidu is walking a thin line between keeping the BJP in good humour and dodging the Opposition fire over his alleged failure to extract the State’s due from the Centre. In the process, he has deftly put the onus on the Centre for almost everything.
Be it implementation of the Reorganisation Act provisions or the five per cent reservation for the numerically strong Kapu community who could swing the election. The State Assembly last month passed a bill providing five per cent quota for Kapus, which takes the percentage of reservations in the State beyond 50 per cent, and sent it to the President for approval. In short, Naidu has prepared the ground to part ways with the BJP if the situation so demands and make it a punching bag in the ensuing elections. The saffron ally isn’t amused but it has few options.
A TDP MP, speaking on condition of anonymity, threw some light on the relations between the allies. “Whether to release funds for the State as per the Act and implement other provisions is at the end of the day a political decision,” he pointed out suggesting that the Modi government’s belief in ‘cooperative federalism’ is limited by party considerations.
“Their strategy would be to align with whoever helps them gain more ground.” Naidu’s opponents may cry hoarse that he is caught in a cleft stick when it comes to the BJP — unable to fight or take a divorce — but party insiders are confident it is the other way round.
The saffron party, they believe, cannot join hands with YSR Congress chief YS Jagan Mohan Reddy. For the latter, whose vote-bank consists of a sizeable minority chunk, it could be suicidal. The Opposition party is right now optimistic claiming a bump in Jagan’s ratings, courtesy his ongoing statewide padayatra. With poll strategist Prashant Kishor by his side, Jagan hopes he could topple the Naidu government but in an interesting turn of events, his old nemesis, Congress, could well spoil his party.
According to a survey conducted by People’s Pulse, a political research organisation based in Hyderabad, the grand old party, the villain of the piece during bifurcation of the State, seems to be showing signs of life. As per its latest tracker poll, the Congress, which could not win a single seat in last elections, may garner six per cent vote share this time round.
If true, it is bad news for the YSRC, which replaced the Congress in the State. In 2014 too, the YSRC lost at least 24 seats due to the Congress. At places where its margin of defeat was less than or a little over 1,000 votes, the Congress secured 2,000-3,000 votes.
Similarly, Pawan Kalyan’s Jana Sena, a TDP ally in 2014, is projected to grab anywhere between 9 and 13 per cent vote share. The actor, who belongs to the Kapu community, may eat into the votes of either the TDP or the YSRC. However, his guest appearances on the political landscape have, if anything, helped Naidu. He too is going to set out on a padayatra shortly.
The other issue for the TDP and the YSRC is the anti-incumbency against sitting legislators. It is a phenomenon in all poll-bound states. In the recent Gujarat elections, 49 out of 98 sitting MLAs lost. In AP, at least 35 per cent sitting MLAs are likely to lose, claims the tracker poll.
Whatever the projections, which could be a bit early in the day, the major problem for the ruling TDP and to an extent the YSRC, is the pending delimitation of constituencies, a key demand of Naidu. If the Centre doesn’t agree to this, the TDP will have a real problem on its hands, having as it did, lured over 20 legislators and several leaders of the YSRC to its camp in the last three years. Internal wrangling over poll tickets is the last thing Naidu would want. That could well be his biggest challenge, notwithstanding his good approval rating.
T.Kalyan Chakravarthy
Deputy Resident Editor, Andhra Pradesh
Email: chakravarthy@newindianexpress.com