Chemistry’ and ‘arithmetic’ are two perennial buzzwords of pop political sociology. Neither was in short supply at the impromptu lab that the Vidhana Soudha’s impressive frontage turned into in Bengaluru the other day. The pic of the moment undoubtedly was that indulgent head-peck on Mayawati, accompanied by that radiant smile, clearly more Sonia Gandhi than Mona Lisa. The gesture also broke through the unsmiling steeliness that usually resides in Mayawati’s eyes (except when she was tending to an ailing Kanshi Ram). Well, this is not the first time Sonia has reached out to the former UP CM, but the context was new: this was the first time after the baton had passed in the Congress.
No one perhaps realised it as much as Sonia that Mayawati was the glue and the compulsion, that it was she who had indirectly delivered the Gowdas to the Congress. There were other unlikely chemical reactions on view too, for instance Chandrababu Naidu’s nudge-nudge to Rahul Gandhi. Not to be missed, Mamata Banerjee and Sitaram Yechury sharing space (despite the recent panchayat bloodbath in Bengal) and Behenji’s first formal outing with Akhilesh Yadav.
In a sense, that’s where chemistry gave way to arithmetic—or rather, emanated from it. A re-run of an old arithmetic puzzle with which only one person on stage had had a first-hand experience, and he WAS the solution. H D Deve Gowda loomed over the frame as a benevolent patriarch, or angel
investor, as Indian politics sought to rewind two-and-a-half decades.
The obvious question: can the clock really be turned back? Will ’77, ’89 or ’96 resonate in 2019? Or is all this just the premature celebration of a small victory by those who had lost the larger narrative?
To begin with the last one, political equations can change overnight. Just a few days ago, as a dejected Yeddyurappa walked out of that same Vidhana Soudha, an eager H D Kumaraswamy held up the hand of his Vokkaliga rival, D K Shivakumar of the Congress, appreciating his stellar role in clinching the day for the Congress-JD(S) alliance.
Then he looked up towards the media gallery to ensure that burying of hatchets was noted and flashed. But by the time the swearing-in celebrations were afoot, it was Shivakumar, looking partially lost in the crowded big picture, who had to sneak in edgewise to hold up HDK’s hand, to register his presence, while the other absent-mindedly looked away.
Why was this slight shift in equation significant? Because the arithmetic of the coming days depends not on the big players who crowded that stage —not whether a Yechury and a Mamata can be in the same front—but how HDK and DKS play on the ground. Especially, how much ground each will be ready to cede.
Yechury/Mamata too are a riddle. Can they join one national team, providing a good enough rationale to their voters for doing so, while being at each other’s throat in Bengal? The Left and the Congress pulled off that feat in 2004, but then the presence of towering mass leaders made it easier.A residual uneasiness lingers. Mamata Banerjee, it seems, complained to Deve Gowda that the kind of arrangements made for the Gandhis were not extended to them. The CMs, former and current, had to walk a distance to reach the stage. That distance is as much physical as metaphorical. Unless the anti-Modi combination is ready to sacrifice individual egos and ambitions for the sake of forging an umbrella alliance, it can neither be convincing nor formidable. Why, it may not convince even the participants.
Unless the internal bad chemistry is managed, there’s little hope of taking on Narendra Modi’s obvious chemistry with the people on the ground. The only way a coming together of opposition forces can stall an Amit Shah from converting that Modi chemistry to a winning arithmetic is if they can convince voters that they are coming together for them, not to secure their personal stakes.
In 2014, a Modi, up against a tainted dispensation, seemed like a slog-over player, an underdog even against his own party patriarch, and hence got votes much beyond the BJP’s usual core support base. “Have not seen him before, but he’s coming up as new big leader, so deserves support,’’ a rural Haryanvi voter had told this writer, four years ago. That’s the bullishness a new idea generates; that’s what the ‘Front’ needs.
The other CM on stage, Naidu, was visibly taking a step back to become one of the many. His nudge to Rahul may seem like a stunning development to those who have seen years of Congress-TDP politicking, but he knows his main rival is no longer the once mighty Congress but Jaganmohan Reddy. The Congress has alienated the state through bifurcation, and has little hope of revival in the short term. Not so for Telangana CM, KCR. Perhaps the reason why he preferred to come a day in advance rather than share stage with the Congress, which is showing signs of revival in his state.
How will the Congress tackle this paradox in the inevitable seat-sharing talks? The GOP, for instance, is unlikely to be given much over half-a-dozen seats in Uttar Pradesh, if the grand opposition alliance really comes to fruition. It may still play ball in UP. But in state after state? What price an alliance where each partner is in reality a foe? It has already had an experience of reducing itself to a bit player in Tamil Nadu. Take Naveen Patnaik’s absence from Bengaluru—Odisha is one of the few states where the GOP is still the opposition. Naveenbabu’s ‘equidistance’ is perhaps more honest: his way of saying he still sees the GOP as a threat. That chemistry can come about only if one’s own arithmetic adds up.