Political parties scoring own goals is not unheard of. Left parties in general, and the CPM in particular, have been known for this extraordinary skill, which is inimitable. By not understanding the aspirations of people who want to take part in economic activities in free market conditions, Left parties became irrelevant nationally a long time ago.
They retained their dominance in West Bengal, Kerala and Tripura till the last decade, and began losing states one after the other. It all started with West Bengal: Losing an election or two is one thing, losing relevance is altogether another. The CPM not only lost West Bengal to the TMC, it forfeited even the runner-up position to the BJP. With the TMC hijacking both the ideology and violence to terrorise political parties, the core of the CPM shifted completely to the TMC, leaving only a shell behind.
It is to be seen whether the BJP will be able to win more seats than the TMC in West Bengal in the 2019 elections. Mamata Banerjee has realised the folly in going too far to appease Muslims, and took aU-turn and allotted state funds for Durga Pooja pandals.The fact is, although they have been in politics since Independence, CPM leaders have not even been as smart as the West Bengal CM, as is evident in the Sabarimala temple controversy. CPM leaders have never been in the habit of sensing the ground reality correctly. Kerala has been ruled by either Left governments (UDF) or left-of-Left governments (LDF). And since the CPM invariably gets the lion’s share of the Hindu votes, it has taken for granted the deep-rooted traditions and beliefs of Kerala’s Hindus.
Keralites, including Hindus, consume more beef compared to people in any other state. Moreover, the CPM, which channels Marxist ideology in seeing religion as akin to a narcotic substance, has been entrenched here among Hindus for far too long than in any other state (In fact, it is Hindus who brought the party to power, not Muslims and Christians). Anybody who sees this could come to a hasty conclusion that Kerala’s Hindus are less pious and indifferent about their traditions and customs. That is the reading on the surface. But when the Sabarimala controversy grabbed headlines, an undercurrent was seen where Kerala’s Hindus were not unequivocal in their support of the CPM, at a time when their religious traditions are trampled on by the LDF government.
Anybody who wants to have a darshan of Sabarimala Ayyappa has to observe vrata (penance) for 41 days and is only then allowed to climb the sacred 18 steps before reaching Sannidhanam. There is no exemption from the vrata for anybody, whatever their social or economic status. The devotees go as a group, singing songs in praise of Lord Ayyappa, travelling, staying, cooking and eating together. It is not uncommon for the group to include devotees cutting across different social, educational and economic backgrounds. In that sense, the pilgrimage to Sabarimala Ayyappa is a great unifier. This is precisely the reason Hindus are protesting the entry of women of reproductive age into Sabarimala.
A man can take a decision to go to Sabarimala only after getting the consent of the family members and especially the lady of the house (mother or wife), as without their cooperation, a man cannot observe vrata for 41 days. It is not uncommon to see girls under 10 accompany their fathers or uncles. Women above 50 also may go to Sabarimala. As the number of trips by the pilgrim increases, faith in Lord Ayyappa rises not only in him but in other family members too. This is the reason women take to the streets, with portraits of Sabarimala Ayyappa, demanding the retention of the status quo. Unfortunately, this is not understood by many who have been asking why women are supporting this “misogynistic” practice of not permitting women between 10 and 50.
The moot question is what would be political outcome of this turmoil. Hindus form 55 per cent and Christians and Muslims together constitute 45 per cent of Kerala’s electorate. Although psephologists and political pundits have been saying that Kerala does not vote along religious lines, it is only partly true. That is, Kerala’s Hindus have been voting in large numbers for the CPM although it never cared for their religious traditions and beliefs. Unlike Hindus, Muslims and Christians have been voting for parties representing their religion. Since the Congress has been maintaining almost a permanent alliance with parties representing Muslims and Christians, the UDF headed by the Congress has been garnering a majority of Muslim and Christian votes. To win elections, the UDF needs only a fraction of the Hindu vote. If Congress had been in power in lieu of CPM and walked on the same path that the CPM did on the Sabarimala issue, it would have lost some Hindu votes, but its core Christian and Muslim votes would have remained intact or even been strengthened due to the hard stance on Hindu traditions and customs.
On the other hand, the CPM, which gets the majority of its votes from Kerala’s Hindus, failed to judge the seriousness of the faith they have in their traditions and customs. Kerala’s Hindus were never bothered about the hypocrisy of the LDF, when it was in power, in matters of faith concerning Christians and Muslims. But as the same sensitivity has not been shown by the LDF in the Sabarimala issue, they are not ready to forgive the LDF or the CPM. The Sabarimala controversy is the breaking point for Kerala’s Hindus who have tolerated the insensitivity of the CPM towards their faith for a long time. They are now left only with the option of moving towards the BJP, as the UDF never cared for their religious traditions either.
Kerala will likely face a bipolar contest, with Christians and Muslims supporting the Congress-led UDF, and the majority of Hindus supporting the BJP, leaving the third place for the LDF in the 2019 general elections. The CPM was in its element during the Sabarimala controversy and scored another own goal.
Thiruvannathapuram S Ramakrishnan
The author is a public policy and political analyst
Email: ramakrishnan@iima.ac.in