Till the other day, many of us were waxing eloquent about the demographic dividends to be derived from the huge Indian population. It was said that with 65% of the 1.3 billion people falling into the working age bracket of 25-50 years, India would become the largest supplier of educated and trained human resources to the world. Many spoke about preventing India from becoming an aging society like Japan.
This narrative seems to have suddenly changed after August 15, when Prime Minister Narendra Modi flagged ‘population explosion’ as a burning issue that needs immediate policy intervention from the states and the Centre. This has kicked up a huge debate.
There’s no denying that explosive population growth has put a huge stress on economic resources, though continued expansion has catapulted India into the big league. Modi’s impressive argument centred around the inability of the state to allow people to lead a life with seamless access to socio-economic schemes due to continued population growth. Not many leaders in India have touched upon thetion issue, which has serious religious and caste connotations. Modi understood the sensitivities, attempted to invoke patriotism and branded population control as a national duty.
After the forced population control and sterilisation procedures that were unleashed on people during the dark days of the Emergency, there was hardly any debate on the issue. Also, religious hotheads in Islam or chieftains in certain Hindu communities claimed population control was against the natural evolution of human race. A whole lot of Christian clergy do not subscribe to or endorse abortions or birth control techniques.
In this context, it must be said that the experience of the Chinese people who faced the One-Child policy implemented by the Communist state during 1980-2016 was harrowing to say the least. The movie One Child Nation clearly brought out the communist repression in the name of population control. There have been instances of mothers jailed, sent to the gallows or even disowning their own kids due to the repressive tactics adopted by the state.
PresdentXi Jinping had to finally lift the ban on bearing a second child after the population decline threw up issues like not having enough hands to work in factories. What makes Modi’s move significant is the fact that many people within the working age remain completely unemployed or under- employed. Joblessness has hit a 45-year high and the abysmally low schooling of 6.3 years per person on an aggregate seems to have unnerved the policymakers.
There may not be many who would object to India housing a manageable population. But then, the longterm impact of a steep fall in fertility rates needs to be analysed. China’s experience with reversing its own population control campaign could provide insight into putting together alternative policy intervention frameworks in India. Even as the population growth stabilises in India, the prediction that we will surpass China’s population in the mid-2020s is what seems to have scared the social scientists. Indian numbers may peak by 2060 at 1.65 billion. Creating the socioeconomic infrastructureand services to support such a big population is the biggest challenge.
Perhaps, addressing issues like gender inequality by providing access to healthcare, education, etc., should become the focus of any policy intervention. Even in population control or sterilisation campaigns, mostly it’s the women who bear the brunt of all surgical procedures. Less than 1% of men are subjected to sterilisation. Providing enhanced education and healthcare access, imparting skills that empower women on the economic front should become an important focal area rather than merely subjecting them to sterilisation.
Apart from population control, disincentivising large families could be a strategy that the government could pursue. Singapore’s tryst with incentives and disincentives to manage population growth could perhaps work in some of our own cities. For instance, families bearing a third child could be allowed lower tax exemptions or deductions in India. Fee concessions for the third child in schools could be denied. Direct benefit transfers in terms of cash for small families below poverty line could be contemplated as an incentive.
Candidates with large families may even be barred from holding public office as in some of our states. Well, Prime Minister Modi’s articulation on population has definitely heightened the expectations of a well-thought-out policy intervention programme during his second term. This should be preceded by a national campaign to sensitise people on this issue.
Unless states and districts partner in this campaign, the idea of a small beautiful family may not sink in. And, coercion methods used in China and other socialist states may not work here. Voluntary compliance with huge benefits and disincentives could be considered as a way out in transition. In the melee, achieving gender balance and economic empowerment cannot be lost. In fact, redirecting the meagre economic resources to achieving this delicate gender balance could be explored. Current preparations for compiling new census data in 2021 should be the starting point for achieving ‘small is beautiful’.