Every single state of the environment report these days is unambiguous about one thing — the biggest catastrophe facing India is climate change and global warming. Its consequences will be economic, social and health related. We are reminded of this, on an average, once every three weeks — the average number of EWEs( Extreme Weather Events) per year have increased to 16 from 10 in 1998, half of them being floods. Economic losses on this account have also gone up from US$20 billion between 1998 and 2007 to US$48 billion between 2008 and 2017.
A World Bank report in January 2019 warns that by 2050, 148 million Indians will be living in severe climate change hotspots. Melting of glaciers in the Hindukush Himalayas will add to this apocalyptic scenario, making the entire Gangetic plains with its 300 million people unliveable by 2100. The window for taking remedial action is closing rapidly. And yet the environment does not feature in the priority of any political party in the coming elections. Their manifestos will contain only the usual rubbish of reservations, loan waivers, temple construction, minimum guaranteed income and so on.
This is a man-made tragedy in itself. We have the third worst ecological footprint on the planet: It has been predicted that countries in South Asia will lose 30-40% of their agricultural output by 2050. The government’s own Economic Survey 2017 has estimated that the loss in agriculture production every year due to climate change is US$ 10 billion, or Rs 70,000 crore.
According to the Lancet Countdown 2018 report on Health and Climate Change, India lost 75,000 million man hours of labour in 2017, equivalent to one year’s work for 7% of the working population ( the figure was 40,000 million in 2000). 80% of this was in the agriculture sector. Pollution-related deaths ( already at 0.50 million per annum for India) will rise exponentially, heat waves have killed 9,000 people in the last three years and migration of environmental/ climate refugees will overwhelm our cities. 24% of our lands are already degraded and headed for desertification, all major rivers are heavily polluted, groundwater levels are depleting alarmingly, with 60% of the blocks classified as water stressed. We have lost 10.60 million hectares of original forests in the last 14 years. In just the last two years, the list of endangered species has gone up from 190 to 443 ( IUCN figures). Apocalypse is round the corner but it’s business as usual for our policy makers.
We as a nation have always had a dismal record of protecting our natural environment, notwithstanding our ancient Vedic philosophy. But the track record of the present BJP government at the Centre is particularly appalling. In its pyrrhic and single-minded quest for a top slot in the Ease of Doing Business ranking, it is decimating the environment on a scale not seen before, and destroying the livelihoods of those most dependent on it — tribals and poor farmers. The forest policy and various enactments are being re-written to enable diversion of more forest land for industrial projects, a prime example being the Inland Waterway project on the Ganga which is being exempted from preparing either an EIA or an EMP, and for which the rare Turtle (Kachua) Wildlife Sanctuary on the river near Varanasi is being denotified. This is the first time since 1972 that a sanctuary is being denotified. EIA and EMPs are being exempted for linear projects (highways and railway lines) and real estate developments up to 50,000 sq. feet. The Coastal Regulation Zone Rules are being liberalised to permit projects such as ports (the Sagarmala project) and tourism, impacting, in particular, vast swathes of mangrove forests that are a buffer to storm surges. The Andaman and Nicobar islands are being opened up for tourism.
River linking schemes are being pushed through without any thought given to their environmental impacts on the river basins; there are 31 such projects on the anvil. The disastrous 900-km Char Dham highway linking Kedarnath, Gangotri, Yamunotri and Badrinath has been given the go ahead, even though it will involve the felling of more than 40,000 trees. The Kedarnath tragedy of 2013 seems to have been forgotten. Protected Areas and Tiger Reserves are slowly being whittled away with the blessings of both the Forest Advisory Committee in the MOEF and the Wildlife Board. In just one PA, at the Panna Tiger Reserve, more than 5,000 hectares of prime tiger habitat is being diverted for the Ken-Betwa river inter linking project for which 18,00,000 trees will face the axe. An astonishing 519 “relaxations” have been given for projects in Protected Areas since 2014. Why is no one talking about all this?
All governments, central and state, appear to be mesmerized by big ticket projects and ventures, and will not let any concerns about the environment stand in their way. But the danger and the threats are very real. Unfortunately, the victims of natural disasters and climate change will be the most vulnerable sections of society — farmers, tribals, fishermen, migrant labour and the tens of millions in urban slums. They do not have the wherewithal to protect themselves against the climatic and economic hardships.
And here is what puzzles me no end. I can understand that governments, in their hubris and avarice, will do what they want to do; what I cannot comprehend is why the opposition is silent on these issues. Why civil society and the media don’t articulate them to create more awareness during election times. Surely, someone should be telling the unsuspecting voter what awaits him in less than a generation.
We have a surfeit of politicians but not a single leader who can LEAD, rather than be led by the populist nose. The tenure of the present government has turned out to be the most damaging for the natural environment: green house gas emissions have continued to rise by 3 to 4% per annum, deforestation continues unabated. Just this month, the governmet cleared a mining project of the Adanis in Chhattisgarh in central India’s largest continuous forest — HasdeoArand, which will lay waste to 841.538 hectares of dense forest. And so, while we may be the world’s fifth largest economy, we are at 177th spot out of 180 countries in the World Environment Performance Index. We were at 141 in 2016. Why is no one talking of environmental governance?
Avay shukla
Former IAS officer
avayshukla@gmail.com