With big game players preparing for the Lok Sabha results on May 23, Telangana Chief Minister and TRS Chief Kalvakuntla Chandrashekar Rao, too, is waiting for an opportunity to play a key role this time in government formation with whatever numbers he ends up getting.
Notwithstanding the claims by the Congress and the BJP, which are hoping to win three seats each out of the total 17 in Telangana, 16 is the maximum TRS can hope to get as it left one for the Majlis party.
With almost all pre-poll and mid-poll predictions indicating a hung Parliament as neither the BJP-led NDA nor the Congress-led UPA are expected to reach the magic figure of 272 in the House of 543, all smaller parties, including the TRS, are fancying their chances to be part of the final power equation instead of staying neutral.
Exit polls though suggest the NDA will stay in power, in which case the TRS would have no role at the Centre. Anyway, regional parties are keeping their fingers crossed.
As for KCR, he wants to build a non-Congress, non-BJP block of regional parties like YSR Congress, JD(S), DMK, BJD, Trinamool Congress, BSP and SP in the Lok Sabha for better leverage while negotiating with national parties during government formation. The aim is to get the national parties to agree to open the purse strings for their respective states to help them keep their poll promises as also strengthen the federal structure.
KCR is said to have told the regional parties that forming a front makes ample sense as their total count of seats would anyway be more than that of the Congress or the BJP taken individually. For, these regional parties put together are contesting in over 200 Lok Sabha seats and are expected to win at least 175. Current seat projections for the BJP and the Congress suggest they would fall short of 175, he reckons.
But there are several ifs and buts on how to go forward. Much will depend on the final outcome on May 23 and whether it will open the space for trying new permutations and combinations. KCR’s rival and Andhra Pradesh counterpart Chandrababu Naidu is already playing games from the UPA’s side. As of now, it is not clear who in KCR’s opinion should be the new prime minister. In fact, all leaders of the yet-to-be-born Federal Front are not united on any issue, leave alone prime ministership. Some of them could independently decide to go with the NDA or the UPA depending on the deal they wangle and the poll outcome.
Even assuming KCR’s proposed front gets around 200 seats, it would need further support from either the NDA or the UPA partners to form the government. As things stand today, none of the three fronts—the NDA, the UPA or the Federal Front—can form the government on their own; they would need support from outside their current sphere of influence. So, what would be the composition of the new front?
Would it be like the failed experiment of the wobbly United Front in 1996 that had just around 145 seats, yet formed the government with outside support from the Congress that had around 150 seats? Within two years, the Congress withdrew support to as many UF governments.
There are three more such bad precedents like the Charan Singh ministry in 1979 and the Chandra Shekhar-led government in 1990. On both occasions, it was the Congress that pulled them down. In 1989, the V P Singh ministry fell after the BJP withdrew support.
On the flip side, there are better precedents of stable coalition governments like NDA-1, NDA-2, UPA-1 and UPA-2 than those led by Deve Gowda and I K Gujral.
Regional party heads who rule their respective states generally try to be on the right side of the Centre so as to keep the fund tap running. If KCR joins the BJP-led front or takes the BJP’s help in forming a third front, he will lose the confidence of the minorities. If he extends or takes support from the Congress-led UPA, it could trigger a BJP surge in Telangana. Whatever decision KCR takes will be crucial for both TRS and Telangana.