Apart of the Indian imagination had long been used to seeing Nepal as “the world’s only Hindu kingdom”—a roseate, self-referential lens-view that stressed on an essential cultural continuity and automatically placed Nepal within a larger Indic zone. No one bothered that this tended to cloud, in our eyes, what has always come off on the other side as an arrogant big-brother approach.
The difficulties in the relationship arose mainly due to this: that New Delhi was surprised there could be any difficulty at all. As far as we were concerned, we had a “special relationship” with our small Himalayan neighbour, which essentially meant India saw it as a sort of protectorate. Nepal, as proud of itself as an organic, coherent nation as India is about itself, never saw it in the same light—from the early, post-independence negotiations on river waters.
Nepal’s troubled transition from monarchy to a republic has not changed that. Now, a full-on Left coalition is poised to take over the reins of power after elections under a newly federal constitution. The Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist Leninist) and the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist Centre)—who have lately hinted they may merge—have won over three-fourth of seats. These are not party names that will fill foreign policy gurus or the political establishment in New Delhi with a great deal of elation.
Not just because of the arrantly leftist orientation. It’s because the Nepali Left is prone to taking a stridently nativist (even “anti-India”) line. This extends to their suspicion of the Madhesis, a Terai people who are “culturally Indian” and speak Maithili and other Bihar/UP languages, whose disaffection India has tried to use as a bargaining chip, including with a disastrous, months-long unofficial blockade in 2015-16.
These themes resonated big during the election campaign. Despite these undercurrents, New Delhi now has to play smart and with soft hands. Or else China will be waiting, with its One Belt One Road project, its rail and port links, and its even Bigger Brother umbrella cover.