According to the latest Freedom House Survey, there are 49 dictatorships (nations that are “Not Free”) in the world—one in Europe, two in the Americas, seven in the Middle East, 18 in Asia, and 21 in Africa. Though it is early days yet, the sudden military arrest of Zimbabwe’s strongman President Robert Mugabe, who at 93 is also the world’s oldest head of state, might just bring down that number by one. More importantly, if indeed the soft coup turns out to be a precursor to democracy, perhaps it symbolises that time is running out for the dictators in the remaining African nations on that list.
Rhodesia, as Zimbabwe was earlier known, was a British colony from 1923 till 1964, when white supremacists led by Ian Smith broke away and declared independence. Mugabe—and his Zimbabwe African National Union–Patriotic Front (or ZANU-PF)—was part of the leftist guerilla movement to free the country.
The British finally left in 1980, and Mugabe was seen as a revolutionary hero who embraced racial reconciliation. He has ruled Zimbabwe—first as prime minister and then as president—since then. A proponent of the one-party state, which he asserted was “more in keeping with African tradition,” he used violence and intimidation to quell any dissent, and his rule has been marked by rampant corruption and nepotism.
Despite this, he was seen as invincible and untouchable, and viewed almost as a God by many of his countrymen (even his wife is said to have declared that he would rule from his grave). His brutal attempts to seize and transfer prime agricultural land owned by white farmers to blacks backfired, leaving the economy of the country once known as southern Africa’s bread basket in shambles.
On November 6, when he fired his vice president to make way for his wife Grace, the army, once his strongest supporter, decided that it was time to step in. Whether it succeeds in convincing Mugabe to quit and call elections will determine the fate not just of Zimbabwe, but many other neighbouring dictatorships.